China adjusts purchases and strengthens focus on self-sufficiency

Published Dec 8, 2025

Tridge summary

The outlook for the global soybean market indicates an adjustment movement, marked by China's attempt to reduce external dependence and increase self-sufficiency. The expectation is a drop of 1 million tons in the country's imports, which should reach 106 million tons in the 2025-26 crop year.

Original content

The Foreign Agricultural Service report maintains the projection of Chinese production at 19.93 million tons, supported by a planted area of 9.96 million hectares. The numbers slightly exceed previous estimates and also the results predicted for 2024-25. The changes occur in a scenario of greater state intervention, following commitments made in a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, when tariff reductions and the end of the suspension of three U.S. shipping companies were announced. By the end of November, industry sources estimated purchases of 2.9 million tons of U.S. soybeans. Despite this, since the beginning of the South American export season, China has intensified its demand for Brazilian product, registering in May the largest monthly import ever made by the country, with a highlight of 12.1 million tons shipped by Brazil. Meal consumption remains the main driver of domestic demand. The forecast for 2024-25 was raised to 103.2 million tons, with ...
Source: Agrolink

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