Climate, India and China drive global sugar market

Published Apr 19, 2024

Tridge summary

The article provides an analysis of the sugar market, focusing on the 23/24 season and the potential impacts on global sugar supply and prices. It highlights a slight recovery in raw sugar prices due to speculations about India prioritizing its ethanol program over sugar exports, which could divert an additional 800kt of sugar in the 23/24 season, thereby limiting export availability and maintaining higher stock levels. Despite this, there is optimism for India's 24/25 harvest, with expected normal monsoon conditions potentially improving productivity and allowing for exports if permitted by the government. The article also discusses Brazil's record 23/24 sugar harvest and its contribution to the bear market sentiment, as well as the potential decrease in China's sugar import demand due to increased domestic production.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to Lívea Coda, Sugar and Ethanol analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets, last week was marked by a slight recovery in raw sugar prices, after the market realized that the Indian government is more inclined to resume the country's ethanol program. to allow any export. “This notion is in line with what we discussed in our previous report, only now it is supported by the fact that the government is, in fact, considering an additional diversion of 800kt of sugar still in 23/24”, he says. As a result, there should be no additional availability to the commercial flow coming from the country, at the same time that stocks will possibly end the year at a level slightly lower, but still higher than that of the last two seasons. “In our opinion, the diversion of 800kt more to sugar would guarantee around 31.1Mt of the sweetener and, therefore, a final stock of almost 6Mt. We must remember that the price movement observed because of these rumors did not mean any change in ...
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