Consultancy reduces Russia's grain harvest and warns of frosts

Published Feb 14, 2025

Tridge summary

Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has lowered its grain harvest forecast for 2025 from 130 million tons to 129 million tons due to potential risks to winter crops from approaching frosts. The main growing regions have experienced an unusually mild winter, leading to melted snow cover. IKAR director Dmitry Rylko expressed concern over the lack of normal precipitation in areas sown with winter wheat, and noted that while there are no major problems at present, they could arise. The consultancy forecasts wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 43 million tons, with a decrease to 39 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season in the baseline scenario.

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Original content

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR on Friday cut its forecast for Russia’s 2025 grain harvest to 129 million metric tons from 130 million tons previously, saying approaching frosts were a risk to winter crops. Russia’s main growing regions have experienced an unusually mild winter so far this year, with the snow cover protecting winter crops having melted completely. Frosts are now on the way in European Russia. “What worries us most is the lack of normal precipitation in about three-quarters of our areas sown with winter wheat,” IKAR director Dmitry Rylko told a conference in Moscow, calling the upcoming frosts “a serious test.” “We don’t see any major problems for now, but they could arise,” he added. IKAR forecast wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 43 million tons. The consultancy expected wheat exports to fall to 39 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season in its baseline scenario. In its pessimistic scenario, IKAR forecast that wheat exports in the ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas