United States: Corn price prospects with 2-billion-bushel carryover

Maize (Corn)
United States
Market & Price Trends
Published Nov 30, 2023

Tridge summary

The USDA's supply and demand balance sheet shows a significant increase in carryover from the previous crop, with beginning stocks of corn exceeding 2 billion bushels. This abundance of corn has had a price-moderating effect, with the season average farm price not exceeding $4.33 per bushel in the past three years. However, if planted acreage remains above 87 million, it could lead to a significant increase in corn supply.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

USDA’s supply and demand balance sheet for U.S. corn has a feature not seen in the corn market since the beginning of the 2019 growing season: carryover from the previous crop exceeding 2 billion bushels. That level of beginning stocks has a significant price-moderating effect. In inflation-adjusted 2023 dollars, the season average farm price has not been higher than $4.33 per bushel in the three years since 2006 during which beginning stocks exceeded 2 billion bushels. Figure 1. Corn beginning stocks and that season’s average real cash farm price ($2023) With a 2024 average yield of 180 bushels per acre (trend line estimate), planted acres could decline from about 95 million in 2023 to just over 87 million in 2024, and the total supply of corn from one season to the next would be little changed. Table 1. 2023 U.S. corn supply forecast and 2024 alternative projection Of course, supply is only one side of the balance sheet. Lower corn prices could stimulate increased corn use. But ...
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