The slowdown in UK milk production to continue, according to a forecast update

Cow Milk
United Kingdom
Sustainability & Environmental Impact
Market & Price Trends
Published Dec 6, 2023

Tridge summary

The first half of the milk year saw higher production due to higher prices and favorable weather conditions, leading to higher yields and a slower rate of cows leaving the herd. However, in September and October, milk flows declined due to lower prices, increased costs, and high levels of precipitation. Farmers could face a cash flow crisis in the winter, and unless prices improve or costs decrease significantly, there may be little incentive to increase cow numbers, which could further impact production levels. The future of milk prices will depend on the recovery of global demand.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

This milk year is predicted to have been one of two halves, with the first half running ahead of last year’s production being driven by the higher prices seen at the end of 2022/beginning of 2023. This led to higher yields and a slowdown in the rate of cows leaving the herd. In addition, favourably wet weather through the majority of the summer led to high levels of forage availability keeping production ahead of last year. This situation flipped in September as the lower milk prices and increasingly pinched margins, along with high levels of precipitation brought the long-anticipated declines in milk flows. September and October were -1.3% and -2.6% behind last year respectively. We are also now annualising against what was a fairly exceptional Autumn of milk production last year. So far, November production has looked even less buoyant, with milk volumes down by 2.9% in the month-to-date. Milk prices remain much lower than those enjoyed last year, the average Defra price sat ...
Source: Ahdb
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