Global: El Niño is the key factor in grain price direction
Sustainability & Environmental Impact
Grains, Cereal & Legumes
Market & Price Trends
Published Nov 18, 2023
Global grain prices have been under pressure due to the flow of Black Sea grain and large Russian supplies in the market. Overall, global grain production is expected to increase by 2% in the 2023/24 marketing year, with maize contributing significantly to this rise. However, while Brazil is forecasted to produce a large amount of maize, weather patterns, including the El Niño phenomenon, could pose challenges to the planting and development of the crop.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.
Fundamentally total grain markets are relatively well supplied for this marketing year (2023/24), with global grain production expected to grow by 2% as forecast by the USDA, with increases in sorghum and maize contributing to this rise. However, for other grains, global production is expected to reduce year-on-year. In 2023/24, the globe is expected to produce an extra 63.7 Mt of maize, and this is expected to be the big bear in the market. A large proportion of this rise in maize production is a result of a larger US maize crop forecast this season. However, as mentioned above most other grain production is expected to reduce, increasing the global reliance on this maize. Brazilian supplies are a large contributor to global supply of maize. Over the past five years (2018/19-2022/23), Brazil supply has accounted for on average 9% of global maize supply. The country is forecast to produce 119Mt of maize this growing cycle according to Conab. However, 76% of this crop isn’t in the ...