Global: Experts warn of long-term high grain prices

Published Sep 22, 2022

Tridge summary

A team of scientists in the US and Uruguay modeled the impact that conflict could have on wheat and corn prices over the next 12 months, and looked at a variety of scenarios. Accordingly, the study found that if Russia's grain exports fall by 50% and Ukraine's exports also drop significantly during the same period, the price of corn will increase by 4.6% and the price of wheat will increase by 7.2 %, although assuming that other exporters can make up the grain shortages of the two countries.

Original content

The team believes that grain prices will continue to rise as long as exports from Russia and Ukraine remain restricted. To make up for grain shortages, the study suggests that other major grain producers around the world need to significantly increase the area under which cereals are grown. According to the forecast model, if Ukraine stopped all grain exports, Australia would need a 1% increase, China would need a 1.5% increase, the European Union (EU) would need a 1.9% increase, and India would need to. an increase of 1.2% in the area planted to wheat. However, the study suggests that this land-use change would cause emissions equivalent to more than 1 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. Jerome Dumortier, study author at the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at the University of Indianapolis, USA, emphasized that the expansion of arable land leads to an increase in carbon emissions. Meanwhile, drought hit South America, Europe and China, with many countries ...

Source: Vinanet