Global wheat markets are poised to provide some direction

Published Aug 7, 2024

Tridge summary

Last week, international wheat markets experienced a positive price trend, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures increasing by three percent. The Australian dollar's weakness against the US dollar also contributed to a 3.9 percent increase in CBoT wheat prices in Australian terms. This is good news for Australian farmers amidst the bearish trend in grain markets since the northern hemisphere's harvest in June. Both Russia and the US are setting the price direction, with Russian wheat production estimates improving and export tax rates being reduced. US crop conditions are solid, leading to increased production estimates. In contrast, major European exporters like France are experiencing lower production estimates, and the Middle East has shown strong demand for wheat. Global wheat stocks are not at historically high levels, and market trends are currently stable as they determine their next direction.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

International wheat markets managed a more positive price tone last week with nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures leading other markets higher to end the week up three per cent. Some further weakness in the Australian dollar versus the US dollar helped to increase the weekly move in CBoT wheat in Australian dollar terms to 3.9pc higher. It's a nice bit of relief for Australian farmers given the relentless bearish sentiment in grain markets since the northern hemisphere harvest began in June pulling prices lower. Both Russia and the United States have been setting the price direction, with Russian wheat offered at the cheapest prices in the world and US prices, as indicated by CBoT, not far behind. Russian wheat production estimates for this harvest have improved from lows of about 80 million tonnes to now be closer to 83-84mt as their harvest has progressed. Last week there was also news that the export tax imposed on Russian wheat exporters for the current period ...

Source: Farmweekly