Grain market in 2024/2025 and prospects for the next season — Igor Pavensky, Rusagrotrans Analytical Center

Published Feb 5, 2025

Tridge summary

The article discusses the impact of low precipitation and dry weather in the Volga region during the current winter, which despite improving the condition of winter crops, has raised concerns for potential spring droughts. It also forecasts an increase in grain harvest, with wheat production expected to rise to 84.6 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. However, exports from the main exporting countries, including Russia and the EU-27, are projected to decrease by 10.4 million tons due to various reasons, while imports by China and other countries are also expected to decline. Russian wheat export demand prices have reached $242/t FOB for March delivery, marking the highest since the start of the current season.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The current winter is accompanied by low precipitation in the regions of the South, Center and West of the Volga region after a dry autumn. Precipitation is expected in the coming week, but then dry weather will resume. Severe frosts in regions where there is no snow that can destroy crops are not yet predicted. The condition of winter crops has improved significantly due to abnormally warm weather in December and January, but the risks of spring drought are growing. ▪️In the 2025/2026 season, the grain harvest is expected to increase from 124 million tons to 132.4 million tons, including wheat - from 82.4 million tons to 84.6 million tons, barley - from 16.7 million tons to 18.9 million tons, corn - from 12.4 million tons to 14.7 million tons. For both barley and corn, these are average annual levels over the past 5 years. ▪️Our estimate for wheat production in the 2024/25 season in the main producing countries is 625.6 million tonnes, which is 6.9 million tonnes (1.2%) higher ...

Source: Oilworld