How has the global cereal market evolved in these two years of war between Russia and Ukraine?

United States
Published Feb 28, 2024

Tridge summary

Iván García from Asegrain Consulting provides an analysis of the cereal market following Russia's invasion of Ukraine two years ago. The market saw an initial price rise due to Ukraine's absence, followed by a drop due to good harvests in Russia and Ukraine, lower demand from China, and higher interest rates. Spain's drought led to further price drops as manufacturers sought international supplies. Investment funds, good harvests in Russia and the US, and decreased consumption in Spain also contributed to the price drop. Overall, the market saw a drop of 140-150 euros per ton from the peak prices in summer 2022.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

Two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we spoke with Iván García, from Asegrain Consulting, to analyze what has happened in this time with the cereal market. To explain the evolution of the market, he divided it into four periods: The first, from February 2022 until the summer of 2022, Ukraine disappears from the market and the cereal must be sought from other origins, as he noted. "These origins raise the price", so in that period it rises between 70-80 euros per ton. From summer 2022 to January 2023, initially, a worse corn harvest forecast in the United States, Argentina and Ukraine "makes it appear that prices may continue to rise." However, "the reality is that the good wheat harvest in Russia, the opening of the grain corridor in Ukraine, as well as the departure of cereals via Poland, Hungary and Romania means that in the aforementioned period prices will drop again between 30 -40 euros. From January 2023 to the summer of that year "there is an excellent forecast for ...
Source: Agropopular
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