In the new season 2024\25, Ukraine will remain the leader in the global sunflower oil market

Sunflower Seed
Market & Price Trends
Published Apr 17, 2024

Tridge summary

Ukraine and Russia, as global leaders in sunflower and sunflower oil (SFO) production, are experiencing a shift in market dynamics for the 2022-2023 period. Contrary to initial pessimistic views, the USDA now forecasts Ukraine to command nearly 41% of the global SFO trade in 2023/24, with Russia at 30%, indicating a more favorable market scenario for Ukraine. This optimistic outlook is further supported by UkrAgroConsult's projections of a 2.6% increase in Ukraine's sunflower seed (SFS) sown areas for 2024, potentially boosting SFS production by 2% and sustaining SFO export levels into the 2024/25 season. Meanwhile, Russia might see a reduction in its SFS sown areas by 2% in 2024 due to better margins in alternative crops, which could impact its SFO market share in the 2024/25 season.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Ukraine and russia remain the key producers of sunflower and sunflower oil in the world. In 2022-2023, scenarios of Ukraine’s prospects and leadership in SFO market looked negatively. However, a more positive scenario is currently being realized. According to the USDA, Ukraine’s share in the global SFO trade in 2023/24 will be almost 41%, and russia’s – 30%. SFO exports (forecast, 2023/24): For most of the 2023\24 season, the spread was positive for SFO prices compared to soybean and palm oil prices. UkrAgroConsult forecast for Ukraine SFS harvest looks optimistic, based on an expansion of sown areas by 2.6%. If only average yields achieved, the 2024 SFS production will increase by 2%. The forecast for 2024/25 SFO exports is also not lower than in the current 2023/24. russia not for the first time announces a reduction in the SFS sown areas in 2024 (-2% compared to 2023). It is likely that in the new season 2024\25 this scenario will come true, as farmers’ margins of soybeans, ...
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