Brazil: Increased soybean crop forecasts increase pressure on prices, including in Ukraine

Market & Price Trends
Published Apr 17, 2024

Tridge summary

Brazil's soybean production forecasts have been revised upwards, thanks to impressive yields, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, which is poised to see a 68% increase in production, positioning it as the country's second-largest soybean producer behind Mato Grosso. This surge is expected to offset the drought-induced losses in other areas. Despite this, sales in Rio Grande do Sul remain sluggish, with only 16% of the harvest sold, attributed to diminished export demand and elevated stock levels. On the global stage, the soybean market is facing pressures from reduced U.S. exports, the potential influx of Argentine soy into the U.S. market, and stiff competition from South American soy products. This has led to volatile prices, with May Soybean futures on a decline, while the purchase price in Ukraine holds steady amid currency appreciation. The EU's import patterns indicate a preference for soybeans from the U.S. and Brazil over those from Ukraine.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In Brazil, as of April 11, soybeans were threshed on 84% of the area (86% last year), and good yields allowed to increase production forecasts. The Conab Agency forecasts that Rio Grande do Sul will increase soybean production by 68% compared to last year and become the second largest producer after Mato Grosso, compensating for the losses from drought in the Central and Western regions. At present, farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have sold only 16% of their harvest amid low soybean prices, while usually 40-45% is sold by the end of April. Experts from Cotrisal, which works with 11 thousand farmers in the region, explain the low sales by the reduction of export demand and higher than last year stocks of producers. Last year, the ports were overloaded with significant export volumes of soybeans and corn. Safras & Mercado raised the forecast of soybean harvest in Brazil from 148.6 to 151.2 mln tonnes amid high yields in the southern states. In 2023/24 MY (as of April 11), the U.S. ...
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