International Futures Market April ’24: New harvest, new prices globally

Rape Leaves
Nuts & Seeds
Published Apr 10, 2024

Tridge summary

Rapeseed prices have surged since mid-March, reaching a peak due to factors such as oil mill supply and the influence of vegetable and crude oil prices, with Strategy Grains adjusting the EU's rapeseed production forecast down to 18.1 million tonnes. Sunflower production is expected to see a 10% increase from the previous year. The global demand for vegetable oils continues to be strong, with market forecasts pending the completion of Brazil's soybean harvest. Meanwhile, wheat prices have risen, with Coceral predicting a lower EU wheat harvest than the previous year. The USDA's forecasts suggest an increased availability of wheat, predicting a price range of 210 to 230 euros per ton for September, while corn prices are expected to stabilize between 215 to 220 euros per ton in southern Germany due to high demand and low supply, despite increased offers from Poland and Ukraine. Market movements are anticipated to be influenced by weather conditions and upcoming USDA reports, with technical signals indicating potential price adjustments.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

Rapeseed prices have been rising since around mid-March. The upward trend ended at resistance at 456 euros/t. The oil mills are very well supplied for the current campaign and are generally only buying very small quantities. The premiums on the spot market have fallen significantly for the current harvest. Vegetable oils and crude oil have significantly supported rapeseed prices. In recent weeks, some estimates for the coming harvest have been published. Strategy Grains has reduced the coming EU rapeseed production to 18.1 million tonnes. The last forecast was 18.3 million tonnes. However, this estimate is 1 million tonnes lower than the last estimate from Coceral. The next few weeks will show which estimate is closer to the truth. For us, the big question is what the yields will be in the coming season. Currently, all forecasts assume an average yield within the EU. We can well imagine that the yield could be somewhat below average. Sunflower production is currently above that of ...
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