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January wheat exports to be lowest in four years

Published Jan 21, 2025

Tridge summary

The Rusagrotrans Analytical Center has revised its January Russian wheat export forecast upwards to 2.4 million tons from 2.1 million tons, but this remains significantly lower than January 2024's exports, marking the lowest in four years. The decrease in exports is attributed to stagnant export prices, low sales volumes, and a negative margin on export deliveries. Despite the lifting of import restrictions and bans on deliveries to Kazakhstan on January 1, there are no mass sales due to Kazakhstan's high harvest and domestic market prices lower than Siberian wheat. The USDA's positive report on corn and soybeans and the bearish report on wheat for the 2024/25 season have also impacted the market.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The Rusagrotrans Analytical Center has increased its estimate for Russian wheat exports in January from 2-2.1 million tons to 2.4 million tons (including the EAEU countries). However, this volume will still be 1.7 times less than the volumes in January 2024, when 4.08 million tons were exported, and will be the lowest in the last four years. The last time the lowest level of shipments was recorded was in January 2022 — 1.9 million tons, the analytical center told Agroinvestor. From January 1 to January 16, 2025, about 0.9 million tons of wheat were shipped abroad. In February, wheat exports are expected at a similar level — up to 2.5 million tons compared to 4.4 million tons a year ago. Among the reasons for the slowdown in shipments, analysts cite stagnation in export prices, low sales volumes from agricultural producers at prices offered to exporters in ports, and, as a result, a negative margin on export deliveries. Export bid prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for ...
Source: AgroInvestor
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