Rapeseed prices support forecasts of a reduced harvest in the EU and rising oil prices

Rape Leaves
Nuts & Seeds
Published Apr 4, 2024

Tridge summary

June Brent crude futures have surged to $89/barrel, the highest in 5.5 months, driven by geopolitical tensions such as Ukrainian drone attacks on a Tatarstan oil refinery and an Israeli strike in Syria. These events have also affected vegetable oil markets, crucial for biodiesel, leading to a decrease in the 2024 EU rapeseed production forecast by Strategie Grains to 18.1 million tons, a 10% drop from the previous year. This has resulted in increased rapeseed imports from Ukraine and Australia, while EU forecasts for sunflower and soybean remain positive. Rapeseed futures prices have risen on the MATIF exchange, and despite a drop in canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange, prices are expected to climb due to dry conditions in Canada. In Ukraine, rapeseed prices have escalated due to a higher dollar exchange rate and border blockades by Polish farmers, contributing to elevated EU rapeseed prices.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

June Brent crude futures rose 4% for the week to a 5.5-month high of $89/barrel amid Ukrainian drone attacks on an oil refinery in Tatarstan and an Israeli strike on an Iranian general in Syria. Such news leads to a speculative rise in oil prices, which supports quotations for vegetable oils used in the production of biodiesel. The agency Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2024 from 18.3 to 18.1 million tons, which would be 10% less than last year's 19.9 million tons, due to a lower than expected harvest in France. To compensate for the reduction in production, the EU will increase imports of rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia in the 2024/25 FY. At the same time, the agency's experts left the forecast for sunflower production in the EU in 2024 at the level of 10.7 million tons (which will exceed the 2023 harvest by 10%), and soybeans at the level of 3.1 million tons (9% more than last year). August new-harvest rapeseed futures on the MATIF ...
Source: Graintrade
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