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How can the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect world markets?

Russia
Ukraine
Published Jan 26, 2022

Tridge summary

A possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine could affect some markets and lead to a change in wheat and energy prices, a change in the dynamics of yields of sovereign dollar bonds and safe assets, writes Reuters. Below are four charts showing how global markets could react to a likely escalation in tensions: 1/SHELTER ASSETS The government debt market has had a tough month with inflation rising to multi-decade highs and interest rate hikes to come, but the open conflict between Russia and Ukraine could change that US 2-year bond yields posted their strongest monthly gain since 2016, while 10-year bond yields approached the key 2% level. German 10-year government bond yields briefly entered positive territory for the first time since 2019. With serious risk, investors usually rush back to bonds, which are considered the safest asset, and this time they may do the same, even if the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushes oil prices even higher, and inflation follows them.

Original content

A possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine could affect some markets and lead to a change in wheat and energy prices, a change in the dynamics of yields of sovereign dollar bonds and safe assets, writes Reuters. Below are four charts showing how global markets might react to a likely escalation in tensions: 1/SHELTER ASSETS The government debt market has had a tough month with inflation rising to multi-decade highs and interest rate hikes to come, but an open conflict between Russia and Ukraine could change that. US 2-year bond yields posted their strongest monthly gain since 2016, while 10-year bond yields approached the key 2% level. German 10-year government bond yields briefly entered positive territory for the first time since 2019. When the risk is serious, investors usually rush back to bonds, which are considered the safest asset, and this time they may do the same, even if the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushes oil prices even higher, and inflation follows them. ...
Source: Zol
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