Russian wheat displaces European wheat in the markets of Africa and the Middle East

Grains, Cereal & Legumes
Market & Price Trends
Published Apr 18, 2024

Tridge summary

In the 2023/24 marketing year, the European Union has experienced a significant decline in wheat exports to North Africa and the Middle East, with reductions of 25% and 60% respectively, primarily due to the competitive pricing of Russian wheat following its record harvests. This shift has led to traditional EU wheat importers like Saudi Arabia and Algeria turning to Russia for their wheat supplies. Consequently, the EU's wheat export forecast has been adjusted down by 2 million tons to 34.5 million tons, while Russia's forecast has been revised up by 1 million tons to 52 million tons. The change in global wheat trade dynamics is further influenced by policy adjustments, such as Algeria's relaxed phytosanitary requirements, and marks Russia's increasing dominance in the global grain market, potentially exceeding a 25% share by the end of the marketing year, with a broader export market base beyond its top three buyers: Turkey, Egypt, and Iran.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In 2023/24 MY, wheat supplies from the EU to North Africa decreased by 25%, and to the Middle East – by 60%, while Russia is increasing its grain exports to these regions. This is stated in the FAS USDA report “Grains: World Markets and Trade”, published in April. European wheat is losing its traditional markets in North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East due to very strong competition from Russian wheat, which is why the export forecast for the EU this season was reduced by 2 million tons to 34.5 million tons, and for Russia increased by 1 million tons to 52 million tons. Record wheat harvests in Russia improve its competitiveness in African and Middle Eastern markets. Previously, almost 95% of the volume of wheat imported to Saudi Arabia was European grain, but in 2023/24 MY the country started to actively buy Russian wheat due to its low price. The situation is similar in Algeria, where 5 years ago 85% of the market was occupied by durum wheat from Canada and ...
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