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SovEcon: Russian wheat exports in May will be close to a record

Published May 22, 2024

Tridge summary

In May, Russia is set to match last year's record wheat exports of 4.1 million tons, far exceeding the five-year average of 1.5 million tons. Russian wheat has become more competitive, priced at $238/t FOB, $21 cheaper than French wheat, marking the largest price advantage since July 2023. Despite adverse weather affecting harvest prospects, demand for Russian wheat has surged, notably from Egypt's GASC. Ukrainian wheat exports have slowed, enhancing the appeal of Russian wheat. Russian exporters have ramped up activity, with contracts for 1.9 million tons of wheat by May 21, up from 0.9 million tons a month earlier, supported by additional export quotas.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In May, Russia may repeat last year’s record for wheat exports of 4.1 million tons, SovEkon experts expect. On average, over five years, 1.5 million tons were exported from the country in May. Exports of Russian wheat are expected to be close to record levels given its high competitiveness. The competitiveness of Russian wheat has increased significantly. As of mid-May, Russian wheat was offered at $238/t FOB, $21 cheaper than French wheat. The spread between Russian and European wheat is at such a high level for the first time since late July 2023, when the grain deal was canceled. The main source of support for quotes was the worsening harvest prospects in Russia. Against the backdrop of weather anomalies in the Center and South of the country, SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production since the beginning of May by 7.2 million tons to 85.7 million tons. Against the backdrop of worsening prospects for the new harvest, demand from wheat buyers has picked up. On ...
Source: Oilworld
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