The soybean market assesses divergence between Brazil's harvest projections

Market & Price Trends
Published Apr 14, 2024

Tridge summary

Recent reports have presented varied projections for the 2023/24 soybean harvests in the United States and Brazil, reflecting the complexities of agricultural forecasting. The USDA has reported higher-than-expected US soybean stocks and kept its Brazilian soybean harvest estimate steady at 155 million tons, despite lower forecasts from Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) and Safras & Mercado, which predict the Brazilian harvest at 146.5 million tons and 151.246 million tons, respectively. This discrepancy highlights a 4.2% decrease from the previous season according to Safras & Mercado. Additionally, Conab has slightly adjusted its forecast down by 0.2% in its latest report. The USDA's global soybean harvest projection stands at 396.73 million tons, with a minor reduction in ending stocks, illustrating the impact of variable climate conditions and planting areas on soybean production estimates.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The week was marked by the release of important reports and estimates for soybeans. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprised by indicating higher-than-expected US stocks and also by maintaining its estimate for the Brazilian harvest. With the harvest coming to an end, estimates for Brazil's harvest still differ. The USDA works with 155 million tons. The National Supply Company (Conab) reduced its forecast this week to 146.5 million tons. Halfway through is the Safras projection, updated on Friday, and marking production exceeding 151 million tons. Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 is expected to total 151.246 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% over the previous season's harvest, which was 157.83 million tons. The estimate was released by Safras & Mercado. On March 15, the date of the previous estimate, the projection was 148.601 million tons. The increase over the previous forecast is 1.78%. Safras indicates an increase of 2.1% in the area, estimated at ...
Source: CanalRural
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