Sugar: 2022/23 season starts with global scenario undefined by climate, but surplus is expected
Sugar
Published Sep 8, 2022
Tridge summary
The global sugar market closes this month the 2021/22 cycle, signaling an increase in production in the next season. By Gabriela Brumatti India and Thailand resumed their pace after the 2020/21 crop was frustrated by the weather and Brazil had a timid performance with the frosts of the previous year, which will make the 2021/22 season close with a deficit of around 1 million tons.
Original content
But for the 2022/23 crop year (October to September), the expectation is that Asian countries will surprise once again and that Brazil will show a reaction. That just won't happen if the weather, always an unknown, doesn't help, analysts said. They assess how the main global producers of the commodity enter the next cycle. Some of the sources consider the projections released by the International Sugar Organization (OIA) last week to be very optimistic. The entity estimated for 2022/23 a surplus of 5.571 million tons of the sweetener in the world. Rabobank's global sugar strategist Andy Duff, for example, works with a surplus of no more than 3.5 million tonnes at the end of the season. “This surplus can be easily doubled or eliminated with some changes in production or consumption, so we always have to understand the vulnerability of this number”, he says. The sugar and ethanol analyst at HedgePoint Global Markets, Lívea Coda, assesses that any adverse weather conditions could ...
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