Sugar futures have seen a significant decline on the New York and London stock exchanges, with the March/25 contract in New York dropping 6.3% this week. Despite concerns about potential fires and droughts, the 2024/25 harvest outlook remains optimistic with recent rainfall. However, a surge in Brazilian production and challenges in India may limit price recovery. In Brazil, the physical market is experiencing a decline in sugar prices, while Central American and Mexican production remains behind schedule. Hedgepoint predicts that the first quarter could shift from balanced to a deficit, but weak demand and the anticipation of the next Brazilian harvest could mitigate price increases, leading to a strong surplus in the future.