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The growth of soybean prices in Ukraine has stopped due to a decrease in export demand

Published May 25, 2024

Tridge summary

The article provides an overview of the global and local dynamics of the soybean market, highlighting recent trends and forecasts. It starts by noting the completion of soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina, leading to increased supply and reduced demand for Ukrainian soybeans and related products. Despite this, traders have completed purchase programs, resulting in stable prices for Ukrainian soybeans. However, a potential price drop is anticipated for soybean meal and pulp, which could impact farmers' sales of soybean stocks.

The article also mentions the strategic withholding of soybean sales by Argentine and Brazilian farmers in anticipation of price increases, which could lead to a surge in supply as they ramp up sales, coinciding with the rape harvest season. Argentine farmers have sold only 31% of the future soybean crop, the lowest figure since FY 2014/15, due to heavy rains slowing down harvesting.

On the global front, Chicago soybean futures have seen a slight decline, and Brazil's soybean export forecast has been reduced due to logistical challenges. US soybean exports have decreased by 17.8% from the previous year, contributing to a global shift in soybean production forecasts for the next marketing year, with an increased production estimate but unchanged consumption forecast. These developments underscore the complex interplay of weather conditions, supply and demand, and international trade in the global soybean market.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The completion of soybean harvesting in Brazil and Argentina increased the volume of supply on the world market, which led to a decrease in export demand for Ukrainian soybeans and soybean meal and pulp. Traders have completed soybean purchase programs at ports, so prices remain at $400-415/t or UAH 18,500-19,000/t for GMO soybeans with delivery to Black Sea ports and $460-465/t for non-GMO soybeans with delivery to Danube ports. Processors buy soybeans with GMOs at UAH 17,500-18,300/t and non-GMO soybeans at UAH 19,200-19,500/t with delivery to the factory, but soon they will start lowering prices due to problems with the export of meal and pulp, since these products are now actively supplied to Europe from the South America. Therefore, farmers should accelerate the sale of soybean stocks. It will be recalled that the farmers of Argentina and Brazil restrained sales in anticipation of rising soybean prices, so soon they will intensify sales, which will coincide with the rape ...
Source: Graintrade
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