Canada: The long-term trend in the wheat market is a global decline in stocks
Market & Price Trends
Published Nov 28, 2023
Global wheat consumption is expected to increase while production is estimated to decline, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks by 17 million tonnes. The decline in stocks is primarily due to a disappointing harvest in Canada. Canada is expected to account for a significant portion of global wheat and durum trade, with a decrease in exports forecasted for both types of wheat.
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The AgroXXI.ru portal has read an article by Sean Pratt published in the Canadian online agronomic publication The Western Producer about an important trend in the global wheat market: “Agricultural journalists have spilled a lot of ink about the production and market of wheat this year, but there is one very important nuance, which received little attention. Global wheat consumption is forecast at 804 million tonnes in 2023-24, up nine million tonnes from last year. Meanwhile, production is estimated to have fallen to 787 million tonnes, a decline of seven million tonnes. This would reduce global ending stocks by 17 million tonnes. “This year we expect to see the largest decline in global ending stocks since 2012,” said Cory Mamchuk, wheat trader at Cargill, during the Cereals Canada webinar “2023 New Wheat Crop Report.” The gap between supply and demand this year highlights a new trend. “The long-term trend for wheat is that consumption is growing faster than production. ...