The Russian presence on the wheat market is not good

Wheat

Russia

Published Feb 4, 2023

Tridge summary

Russian wheat exports are likely to reach a record pace in the coming months, putting serious price pressure on the world market. The Moscow Agricultural Research Center (SovEcon) assumes this at least, and currently estimates the relevant quantity for the first half of 2023 at 21.3 million tons. This is 10.4 million tons, 95% more than in the same period of the previous year, the Fendt news service reported. Russian experts mainly justify their forecast with the high wheat stocks of their own country's farms. According to the latest estimate of the Rosstat statistical office, this amounted to 22.1 million tons on January 1, 2023, which is 42% higher than the five-year average. The main reason for this was the record wheat harvest in 2022, which, according to the institute, exceeded the previous year's level by 37 percent or 104.4 million tons. In addition, the statisticians did not take into account the stocks of small and non-agricultural farms.

Original content

According to the research center, Russian wheat exports are relatively low, estimated at 22.7 million tons in the first half of the 2022/23 season (the four-year average is 23.3 million tons). The ruble kept at an artificially high exchange rate, high freight charges and Russian export taxes are cited as the reason behind the lag. However, the ruble has depreciated sharply against the dollar in the past two months. thus, the competitiveness of Russian wheat increased again. According to the SovEcon ...

Source: MezoHir