Following a bumper 2022 harvest, on top of relatively subdued demand, the UK is expected to have a substantial exportable surplus of wheat this season. In November’s cereal supply and demand estimates, the surplus available for either export or free stock of wheat was forecast at 2.25Mt in 2022/23, over two and half times 2021/22 levels and the largest surplus since 2015/16. With trade data now available for the season up to November, are UK wheat exports progressing at a pace fast enough to avoid large ending stocks?

UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £230.50/t yesterday, up £0.50/t from Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) were up £0.95/t over the same period, closing at £223.45/t yesterday. Potential demand for European wheat from Tuesday’s Algerian tender for c.600Kt wheat and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s exports supported prices. Meanwhile, US wheat markets followed maize markets lower on profit-taking and rains in Argentina easing dryness concerns. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €543.50/t, down €16.50/t from Tuesday’s close. European rapeseed markets fell following a proposal from the German environment minister to retract the usage of crop-based biofuel in the country. Pressure was also felt from downward movements in soyabean markets on the back of improved weather in Argentina. In November, the UK exported 112.9Kt of wheat (including durum wheat), 40.7Kt more than was exported in October, and the largest volume for the month of November since ...

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