US and Australian experts publish conflicting forecasts for the rapeseed crop

Published Apr 23, 2024

Tridge summary

Experts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 4% reduction in the rapeseed area for the 2024/25 season to 8.27 million acres, with an anticipated yield of 5.67 million tons, consistent with the previous season's output. Western Australia, responsible for 44% of the nation's canola production, is at risk of decreased harvests due to drought, potentially leading to an 8-year low in supply and higher prices. Conversely, New South Wales and Victoria have seen good planting conditions, though more rainfall is needed. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts more rain for New South Wales but less for Western Australia and Victoria. In contrast, USDA experts expect a 14% rise in rapeseed production to 6.5 million tons, the third largest historically, with an 8.6% increase in sowing areas. Australia, as the world's second-largest canola exporter, has witnessed changes in export destinations in recent years.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Experts of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) predict that the area of rapeseed in the country in 2024/25 MR will decrease by 4% compared to last year to 8.27 million acres or 3.35 million hectares, and the harvest will be 5.67 million tons , which will correspond to the level of the previous season, - Western Producer reports. If the drought in the state of Western Australia, where 44% of the Australian canola crop was harvested in 2023/24 MR, continues for another month, the harvest will be significantly reduced, the transitional balance will be the lowest in 8 years and prices will rise. New South Wales and Victoria, the second and third largest producers of canola, have had favorable planting weather, but farmers are hoping for more rain by June. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts above-normal rainfall for New South Wales from May to July, while Western Australia and Victoria will see below-average rainfall. USDA experts believe that rapeseed production in ...
Source: Graintrade
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