USDA left unchanged the forecast of soybean crop in Brazil, which increased pressure on the quotes

Market & Price Trends
Published Apr 13, 2024

Tridge summary

The April WASDE report from the USDA revealed a surprising stability in the global soybean market, defying expectations of a significant downturn due to a forecasted drop in Brazil's soybean production. Instead, the report showed only minor adjustments to the soybean balance for the 2023/24 marketing year, leading to a slight dip in soybean futures prices. In contrast, the USDA's upward revision of global rapeseed production and exports, with notable increases in Australia, Moldova, and Canada, resulted in a decrease in May canola futures prices. This adjustment is expected to enhance Canadian canola supplies to the EU market, potentially lowering European rapeseed prices.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the April WASDE supply and demand balance, the USDA experts almost did not change the global soybean balance, which surprised the market, which expected a significant decrease in the crop forecast for Brazil and adjustments to the estimates of global production and stocks. Compared to the March estimates, the new soybean balance for 2023/24 MY has undergone the following changes: According to the report, the may futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange yesterday fell by 0.5% to 426 $/t (-2.9% compared to the data after the release of the report in March), while November futures for the new crop are trading at a low level of 427,8 $/t on expectations of increased yield in the United States. At the same time, USDA experts raised the forecast of world rapeseed production in 2023/24 MY by 0.3 to 88.4 (88.82) million tons, in particular for Australia by 0.2 million tons, and the forecast of world rapeseed exports by 0.2 to 17.13 million tons, in particular for Australia – ...
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