World: USDA lowers soybean harvest forecast in Brazil by only 1 million tons, although market expected more significant changes
Market & Price Trends
Published Feb 10, 2024
The USDA has revised its forecasts for global soybean production, consumption, and exports, indicating a slight decrease due to a tighter balance sheet than last season. Meanwhile, global rapeseed production is expected to increase, particularly in India, while world sunflower production is predicted to decrease, notably in China. These changes are influenced by improved weather conditions in South America, active soybean harvesting in Brazil, and reduced oil demand from China due to its deepening economic crisis.
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In a February report, USDA experts slightly lowered their forecasts for world production, consumption and exports of soybeans, although the market had expected a more significant decrease in estimates. As a result of the opening inventory adjustment, the ending inventory estimate also exceeded analysts' forecasts. Overall, the soybean balance sheet remains fairly tight compared to last season, although Brazil's soybean crop outlook is a cause for concern. Compared to the January estimates, the new soybean balance for the 2023/24 FY has undergone the following changes: According to the report, March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 0.4% to $438.5/t (-3.4% compared with the data after the January report) supported by a speculative increase in soybean oil prices on 2.5%. Also, USDA experts increased the forecast of global rapeseed production in 2023/24 by 0.3 to 87.4 (88.82) million tons, especially for India, although the export estimate remained at 17.1 million ...