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Global: USDA May report projects 2024/25 crop numbers

Published May 19, 2024

Tridge summary

The USDA's first sign for the 2024/25 soybean supply and demand picture on May 10 revealed an increase in the expected harvest and ending stocks for the grain, putting pressure on prices. The projected harvest is 4.450 billion bushels, exceeding market expectations, and ending stocks are estimated at 445 million bushels, higher than the market forecast. The USDA also reduced its production estimate for Brazil to 154 million tons and maintained Argentina's forecast at 50 million tons for 2023/24, with initial estimates for 2024/25 being 169 million tons and 51 million tons, respectively. Chinese imports for 2023/24 are projected to remain at 105 million tonnes, with an expected rise to 109 million tons for the next season.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The first sign for the supply and demand picture for soybeans in the United States, released by the North American Department of Agriculture (USDA) on May 10, added pressure to the already bearish fundamental scenario for the grain. As a result, indications are for a higher harvest and final stocks in 2024/25. The report indicated that the country's harvest is expected to be 4.450 billion bushels next season, equivalent to 121.1 million tons. Yield was indicated at 52 bushels per acre (58.3 bags). The number exceeded market expectations of 4.43 billion or 120.6 million tons. Ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels or 12.11 million tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 432 million bushels or 11.76 million tons. The USDA is estimating exports of 1.825 billion bushels and crushing of 2.425 billion bushels. These were the first numbers for the current season. Final stocks for 2024/25 are estimated at 128.5 million tons, above the market forecast of 120 million tons ...
Source: CanalRural
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