USA: USDA planting report adds uncertainty

Published Apr 5, 2024

Tridge summary

In early 2024, grain prices have seen a decline due to expectations of robust production in major producing areas, despite a USDA report showing a drop in global wheat stocks-to-use ratios. This situation is largely due to the anticipation of a significant increase in global corn supply, especially from the US, which contradicts the USDA's Prospective Plantings report indicating reduced planting areas for wheat and corn. Although current grain prices reflect a positive outlook on crop yields, market dynamics remain susceptible to changes based on actual production results and weather conditions. Meanwhile, in Australia, grain buyers are actively pushing prices up in an effort to meet growers' price expectations amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding global and local crop production.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Grain prices have drifted lower in early 2024 on the expectation of good production in the major producing regions of the world. The last monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had global wheat stocks-to-use "decreasing" this year. This estimate assumes trendline (or reasonable) yields. So why the decrease in global wheat prices? Partly it's because of the expectation for global corn supply to increase. A large part of the estimated global corn supply increase is based on an expected increase in US corn production. This corn crop has not yet been planted. Winter wheat crops are emerging from dormancy and spring crops such as corn, soybeans, high protein spring wheat, barley, pulses, and oats are still to be planted in the northern hemisphere. On March 28, the USDA released its annual Prospective Plantings report for 2024 which provides the first official survey based estimates of US farmers ...
Source: Farmweekly
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