What is the scenario for the sugar market if the Center-South of Brazil produces only 611 million tons of cane in 24/25?

Published Feb 21, 2024

Tridge summary

The upcoming sugarcane harvest in Brazil's Center-South region could be impacted by irregular and dispersed rainfall, potentially affecting the estimated production of 620Mt of sugarcane, 41.8Mt of sugar, and 33.3Mt for export, according to hEDGEpoint. The main risks include a further drop in productivity and the influence of the La Niña weather pattern. While short-term price support is expected during the off-season, late sugar production could limit these gains.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

In the previous report, “Sugar: Effects of adverse weather in the Center-South could reduce the 24/25 harvest if persistent” (Sugar - 12.02.docx), hEDGEpoint analyzed the challenges of reviewing the volume of cane for the next harvest in the Center-South. Brazilian South and, therefore, sugar. “The main reason behind this difficulty is that precipitation was quite irregular and dispersed throughout the region,” says Lívea Coda, Sugar and Ethanol analyst at hEDGEpoint. Also according to Lívea, “while some of the main sugarcane producing micro-regions, such as Ribeirão Preto and Triângulo Mineiro, had below-average rainfall, others, such as São José do Rio Preto and Araçatuba, had more typical levels of precipitation. Additionally, we note that some entities anticipate a significantly greater expansion in the sugar mix compared to our projection. While we recognize that substantial investments have been made to the crystallization process, the exact extent of these investments ...
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