Tridge summary
Soybeans were modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Beans followed through on the post-report gains, with USDA lowering crop size and yield unexpectedly. U.S. ending stocks were up on the month, but by a smaller than expected margin. The USDA did lower exports, with demand for U.S. beans slower than expected. That’s due in part fast pace of planting in Brazil, which should lead to earlier than normal availability on the export market. The USDA did lower the soybean production estimate for Argentina earlier this week, while leaving Brazil unchanged. CONAB’s will issue updated estimates for Brazil Thursday, while the USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out December 9th. Soybean meal was mostly firm, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was up on the bullish tone in the soy complex and early strength in global vegetable oils. Unknown destinations bought 22,000 tons of 2021/22 U.S. soybean oil Wednesday morning.Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. The USDA lowered corn ending stocks on ethanol demand expectations, cancelling out higher production and yield. The USDA left exports unchanged, despite the fairly unimpressive demand during the first quarter of the marketing year. China is rumored to have purchased corn from Ukraine this week. DTN says a South Korean feed mill bought 137,000 tons of optional origin corn, possibly sourced from South America or South Africa. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Friday morning. Some harvest delays are probable in parts of the region late this week and next week. In South America, conditions in most of Brazil look good, but parts of the country do need rain, and there are uncertainties about next week’s rainfall for Argentina. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.039 million barrels a day, down 68,000 from the previous week’s near-record high, but up 62,000 on the year. Stocks of 20.286 million barrels were an increase of 157,000 on the week and 127,000 on the year.The wheat complex was sharply higher on commercial and technical buying. U.S. ending stocks were up slightly on the month, but the hard red winter supply outlook was tighter, and world stocks were down. U.S. winter wheat development conditions look mixed, with dry weather in parts of the southern and northwestern U.S. Plains, hard red and white winter growing areas, respectively, and excessively wet conditions for some soft red winter growing areas in the eastern Midwest. There’s talk Russia will extend its export tax, which has risen sharply over the past several weeks. Parts of Russia and Ukraine remain dry as winter wheat heads towards dormancy, while portions of Australia are expected to see a drier pattern next week, which would be welcome. France’s AgriMer has soft wheat exports inside the European Union at 7.8 million tons, down 200,000 on the month due to decreased demand from feed mills, with sales outside of the bloc at 9.4 million tons, also 200,000 less than the last guess, citing bigger crops from Australia and Argentina.