Wheat prices in Ukraine reached the highest level since the beginning of the full-scale invasion

Published May 22, 2024

Tridge summary

Wheat prices have seen notable volatility, with a speculative rise of 15-20%, a subsequent drop of 4-5.5%, and a recent increase of 3.9-5.7% driven by active futures buying. Traders are focusing on adverse weather in Russia, where frosts and drought have damaged crops, while positive developments in France and the U.S. are being overlooked. In Ukraine, wheat prices have returned to pre-war levels despite minimal frost damage. Russian wheat yields are expected to fall by 10-30% due to poor weather. Meanwhile, U.S. wheat planting and crop conditions are favorable, though exports have declined. France has revised its forecast for soft wheat ending stocks and export expectations upward.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

After a speculative rise in price during the month by 15-20%, wheat quotations last week fell by 4-5.5%, but yesterday speculative funds again began to actively buy futures, which led to prices rising by 3.9-5.7%. Traders are monitoring weather conditions, especially in Russia, where frosts in April damaged crops weakened by drought, and there will be no precipitation in the next 10 days, and are ignoring positive news about the wheat harvest in France and the United States. July futures for wheat of the new harvest yesterday rose: In Ukraine during the week significant precipitation is not expected, but the recent frosts almost did not damage the crops. Export demand prices for the week increased for milling wheat by 400-500 UAH/t to 8800-9100 UAH/t (which corresponds to the pre-war price level) or 195-202 $/t, and for feed wheat – by 500-600 UAH/t to 8200-8300 UAH/t or 180-184 $/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports. Wheat exports in 2023/24 MG reached 16.64 million tons (8.9% ...
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