Wheat production expected to grow by 11% in the European Union

The USDA's May World Agricultural Production report forecasts a significant increase in wheat production in the European Union for the 2025/26 marketing year, with an estimated output of 136.0 million metric tons, marking an 11% rise from the previous year and a 3% surpassal of the mean of the last five years. This improvement is attributed to several factors, including an expansion in the harvested area by 6% to 24.0 million hectares and a projected increase in the average yield to 5.67 tons per hectare, which is 5% higher than the previous cycle and 2% above the recent average. The favorable crop conditions in the EU are highlighted by a positive deviation from the normal NDVI, despite initial challenges like heavy September rains that led to flooding. A mild winter and overall stable weather conditions across major EU countries such as Germany and France have been beneficial for wheat cultivation, with only a few regions experiencing spring drought. Southern Europe, including Italy and Spain, has also experienced favorable weather for wheat farming. France and Germany have increased their wheat cultivation areas for the 2025/26 harvest, influenced by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the trend is evident among Balkan farmers to invest more in winter crops after summer crop losses.