With prices hitting rock bottom, production declining, and red tide striking, will Ecuadorian white shrimp be able to turn things around in June?

Globally, the mainstream specification prices for Ecuadorian white shrimp have basically stabilized. In Week 24 (June 9-15), the quotation for 30/40 HOSO frozen white shrimp remained at $4.60 per kilogram, with a fluctuation range of only $0.10.

Meanwhile, China's domestic wholesale market has temporarily ended its continuous downward trend, with frozen white shrimp prices showing localized small increases, especially for large-specification products with certain premium space, indicating that inventory pressure has somewhat eased and the market anticipates a price rebound.

Importers from Beijing and Shanghai generally believe the price has reached a "bottom stage" and expect that Ecuadorian factories will attempt to push a new round of price increases around the Zhanjiang Water Expo on June 18. Currently, Chinese demand remains relatively stable, and although domestic live shrimp are concentrated in the market causing periodic competition, the prolonged low prices of Ecuadorian shrimp have triggered some manufacturers' reluctance to further reduce prices, especially when orders are not urgent and inventory is controllable.

However, compared to the price stalemate with China, the U.S. market is experiencing a different negotiation. Since Ecuador's reciprocal tariff rate for white shrimp is only 10%, far lower than many Asian countries (up to 46%), U.S. purchasers are more inclined to buy from Ecuador, especially before the July 9 negotiation deadline, with uncertainty remaining about tariff cancellation. In this context, some U.S. customers are eager to complete shipments, while others choose to wait and see. If tariffs are canceled, Ecuador's shrimp exports to the U.S. will significantly rebound, further affecting the global supply and demand pattern.

Additionally, Ecuador's local farming sector faces certain challenges. Since June, red tide has broken out, with Karenia brevis algal blooms causing many small-specification shrimp to be harvested prematurely, affecting overall specification structure and market timing. Meanwhile, due to temperature changes, farming cycle adjustments, and some early seedling strategies, the industry generally anticipates a month-on-month decline in Ecuador's overall production in June, potentially tightening the supply-demand relationship.

Multiple