Gro Intelligence's machine learning models predict a recovery in global wheat supplies in 2024, following four years of decline, due to favourable conditions for winter wheat crops in the U.S., Russia, Argentina, and Australia. However, a weak 2023 monsoon is expected to cause a decline in wheat production in an unspecified country, and wet conditions have hindered sowing in some European Union areas. Despite these challenges, the Spanish crop shows improved health compared to last year. Analyst Mike Jubinville cautions that it's too early for production forecasts and emphasizes that demand is the main factor currently impacting the wheat market.
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Gro Intelligence is forecasting a rebound in global wheat supplies in 2024 after multi-year declines. World stocks of the crop, excluding China, have declined for four straight years, with inventories at their lowest level in 15 years. That will not be the case this year, according to the company’s machine learning-based forecast models. “A favourable start to winter wheat crops in the U.S. and Russia, along with improved prospects for crops that will be planted later in 2024 in Argentina and Australia, is expected to lift world wheat inventories,” the company stated in its 2024 Watchlist. MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville thinks it is premature to be making any production forecasts, especially for crops in the Northern Hemisphere. He also noted that supply isn’t as much of a factor in the wheat market as demand is these days. Inflation, rising interest rates and the inability to secure letters of credit are hampering the ability of end users to make purchases. “They just don’t ...