Australian Cattle Slaughter and Beef Production Rise in Q3 2022, Further Gains Expected in 2023
•Production is set to recover further in 2023.
•Exports to the US are expected to increase in the upcoming year.
According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, cattle slaughter in Australia (excluding calves) totaled 1.56 million head in Q3 2022 , which represents an increase of 4.5% quarter-over-quarter but a decline of 2.5% year-over-year. This was the lowest number of cattle slaughtered for the third quarter since 1985.
During the first three quarters of 2022, cattle slaughter totaled 4.39 million head, a drop of 3.6% compared to the same period in 2021. During the first three quarters of the year, Australian beef production totaled 1.4 million mt, down 14% compared to the same period in 2021.
Meanwhile, total beef production during Q3 2022 totaled 493 thousand mt, up 4.2% compared to the previous quarter, but down 0.7% compared to the same quarter in 2021. This was the lowest beef production volume for the third quarter since 2003.
During Q3 2022, the average beef produced per head slaughtered was 319 kg, only 1 kg down from the previous quarter (-0.3% QoQ) but up 5.6 kg compared to the same quarter in 2021 (+1.8% YoY).
Source: Tridge and Australian Bureau of Statistics
Beef production and cattle slaughter in Australia remain near historical lows as the country is still in a herd rebuilding process which was caused by dwindling herd numbers as a result of drought conditions in previous years. However, as the herd numbers increase, production is set to recover.
In fact, Australian beef production is expected to rise in 2023. This will coincide with much lower production in the US. The US is currently facing dry conditions, which have increased cattle slaughter and beef production over the short term, but herd numbers are dwindling. This will have a negative impact on beef production next year. The outcome of this will likely result in a surge of beef exports from Australia to the US in 2023, which will lead the former to regain some market share that it had lost to other major producers, such as Brazil, during recent years.
World beef production in 2023 is expected to total 59.24 million mt, according to the USDA’s October estimate, down only 0.2% from 2022's projection of 59.37 million mt. The USDA forecasts US production to decline by 6% to 12 million mt, but it expects Australian production to rise by 13% to 2.2 million mt.
