China’s Avocado Production and Imports Projected To Grow

China’s demand for high-quality fresh avocados continues to grow, and its avocado production and imports are expected to continue increasing in the coming years. According to a recent report by the China-based US Department of Agriculture, The growth of Chinese avocado consumption is being driven by increasing consumer familiarity and health consciousness, with the largest consumer group being women under the age of 35 in China’s largest cities.

The demand from retail and wholesale businesses in China largely drives the growth in fresh avocado consumption. The USDA report estimates that around 80% of fresh avocados are sold in retail or wholesale venues, while the remaining 20% are via the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) outlets.

Domestic production of Hass avocados is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. According to the report, there is confidence among Chinese producers that fresh avocado production could reach 20 thousand mt over the next five years. Farmers have improved their growing techniques and are able to keep the fruit consistent in size and flavor. Therefore, the quality of China’s domestic avocados is improving.

Hass avocados began to be grown in China only about six years ago, mainly in the Yunnan province. Yunnan province has rapidly developed into the largest avocado-producing area in China, with an estimated 4,000 hectares currently under cultivation. Yunnan producers aim to double production within three years; however, access to suitable farmland at affordable prices remains challenging, and water supply and investment in irrigation are factors that may constrain further expansion.

Besides the increase in domestic production, avocado imports to China have also increased significantly and are expected to keep growing. According to Chinese customs data, China’s avocado imports have been stable in 2022, with a slight increase of 3% from January to September compared to the same period last year. In 2021, China imported more than 41 thousand mt of fresh avocados, close to the record of almost 44 thousand mt in 2018.

Peru remains the leading avocado supplier to China, followed by Mexico and Chile. In 2021, China imported over 26 thousand mt of fresh avocados from Peru, accounting for 64% of the imported avocado market share. From January to September 2022, China imported about 25.6 thousand mt Peruvian avocados, an increase of 11% YoY. In value terms, avocado shipments to China during that period totaled USD 38 million, a value equivalent to 4 % of total Peruvian avocado exports to the world.

Due to the upward trend projections for avocado imports, China is actively granting market access to other important avocado suppliers to fulfill year-round demand. In 2022, Kenya exported its first avocados to China after being granted market access by a new phytosanitary protocol issued by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China in November 2022.

Avocado cultivation in Africa is set to benefit from growing Chinese demand as the country has declared its commitment to boosting trade with the continent. Tanzania was also granted market access to export avocados to China, which will take effect from November 15, 2022. However, control measures are to take place for fruit flies, and all Tanzanian avocado fruit must comply with applicable Chinese phytosanitary laws and regulations. Mozambique and Zimbabwe are also pushing to export avocados to China.