Heavy Rains Cause Major Flooding in Key Argentine Soybean Region

During the weekend of May 17–18, severe weather struck northern Buenos Aires province in Argentina—a critical agricultural zone for the country's soybean crop. This resulted in widespread flooding. The Argentine National Meteorological Service issued a red alert for the region as rainfall reached between 150 and 250 millimeters (6–10 inches) in the corridor between Zarate and Arrecifes. In San Antonio de Areco, rainfall exceeded 260mm within a single 24-hour period, exacerbating the situation.

This heavy downpour hit at a crucial time in the agricultural calendar, as Argentine farmers work to complete the 2024/25 soybean harvest. Already delayed due to earlier rains in Mar-25, the recent weather has significantly worsened field conditions, potentially leading to additional losses.

Figure 1. Areas Affected by Flooding in Campana, Buenos Aires

Soybean Harvest Delays and Crop Risk Mount

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) currently estimates the national soybean crop at around 50 million metric tons (mmt)—a solid figure by historical standards. However, BAGE also warned that the torrential rains could prolong harvest delays and result in physical damage to plants still in the field.

Figure 2. Argentine Soybean Production

Approximately 730,000 hectares (ha) remain unharvested in the northwestern part of Buenos Aires province, a region that had already experienced adverse weather earlier this year. According to the exchange, harvesting progress is lagging by roughly 15 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. The recent flooding threatens to further widen this gap.

The Rosario Grains Exchange echoed these concerns, emphasizing the time required for excess water to drain and the likelihood of crop deterioration if saturation persists. The time it takes to drain the excesses can influence the magnitude of the productive damage.

Soybean Futures Rally Amid Supply Fears

Global soybean markets responded quickly to the developments in Argentina. On May 21, soybean futures rose in overnight trading on growing concerns over South American crop losses and the weakening United States (US) dollar. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), soybean futures for July delivery climbed US¢ 5¾ to USD 10.58¾ per bushel.

Other soy-related commodities also experienced gains. Soymeal prices increased by US¢ 80 to USD 293.40 per short ton, while soy oil advanced by US¢ 0.38 to US¢ 49.88 per pound (lb). These price movements reflect heightened supply-side risks and renewed investor attention to weather-driven volatility in key export regions.

Outlook: More Rain Expected Over Coming Weekend

Looking ahead, both the Buenos Aires and Rosario exchanges warn of additional rainfall forecasted for the upcoming weekend of May 24–25, particularly on Saturday (May 24). The timing and intensity of the new precipitation could play a pivotal role in determining the full extent of crop losses.

If fields do not have adequate time to drain, already-stressed plants may suffer further, and mechanized harvesting could become even more difficult or impossible in flooded areas. This raises the risk of permanent field losses in some parts of the province.

Conclusion: Argentina’s Soybean Sector Faces Growing Uncertainty

The flooding in northern Buenos Aires highlights the increasingly volatile climate challenges facing global agriculture. Any production setback in Argentina, the world’s third-largest exporter of soybeans, has immediate implications for global supply chains and commodity pricing.

With more rain on the horizon and substantial areas of crops still unharvested, stakeholders across the soy value chain, from local producers to global buyers, are bracing for further disruptions and closely monitoring Argentina's weather outlook in the critical weeks ahead.