Pecan Receipts Indicate a Disappointing US Pecan Crop
Normally the USDA’s NASS releases the Pecan Production report in January, containing a detailed crop estimate for the production year, however, this report has been suspended. With no detailed crop production report due in January, pecan deliveries for the first 4 months of the MY can give some indication of total production. Comparing pecan receipts for the first 4 months of the marketing year to historic data indicates that the crop might be closer to only 210 million lbs (95,254 mt).
The latest official estimate was done way back in October
The USDA’s NASS normally releases a detailed Pecan Production report in January, providing the area-bearing nuts, yield estimates, production estimates, and price estimates. However, due to changes in the US pecan industry, there will not be a production report in January. This means the next official estimate will be released in May (the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Annual Summary, due on May 4th). A lot has happened since the last report released in October, and the bulk of the pecan crop has already been harvested. Since the last official estimate is 4 months old, a more up-to-date indication of the crop size can be found by comparing pecan receipts so far this marketing year. The ACP publishes monthly position reports for US pecans which can be used to estimate total production by comparing these numbers to historic data.
This marketing year’s receipts compared to previous marketing years
Comparing this marketing year’s receipts to that of the three previous marketing years, reveals that the 258 million lbs crop estimate might be an overestimate. So far this marketing year, from September 1st, 2021 until December 31, 2021, 92,389,917 lbs of pecans have been received. Given the crop estimate is 258 million lbs, this is 36% of the crop. The average percentage of total receipts for the 3 previous seasons was 44% until the end of December. This could indicate the pecan crop is coming in much slower than usual, but more likely indicates that the crop will be lower than the October estimate: if the 3 previous seasons are taken as an indication, the crop might actually only be 210 million lbs.
Tight Supplies
US total pecan production in MY 2020/21 was enormous, at 300 million lbs, much higher than the average for the 5 years before of around 275 million lbs.
With the 2021/22 harvest nearing its end, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size of the crop. The western production regions were hit by drought throughout most of the year. In Georgia, the largest producing state, after the record production in 2020, trees exhausted some of their energy reserves, which has resulted in lower yields this season. This, coupled with unfavorable weather, led to a massive drop in production.
While the October estimate might still be on the high side, even at 258 million lbs, demand could outstrip supply. Imports will need to increase to supplement the supply side. Exports have been on the increase, as global demand for nuts, in general, is climbing ever higher. Many of the 2021/22 season’s pecans have already been committed as exports, and exports are thus expected to increase. After strong marketing campaigns by the ACP in the domestic market, domestic consumption has been on the increase, almost doubling in the last 3 years, to 344 million lbs in 2020/21. However, as with most other nuts in the US, domestic demand could drop back slightly lower than the 2021 numbers. Even at these estimates, demand could outstrip supply this season, leading to a drop in ending stocks.
**2021/22 estimates are based on calculations by Tridge