The Effects of the Malaysian Chicken Export Ban in Singapore

The Malaysian government issued an export ban of 3.6 million live chickens per month from June 1 until local supply stabilizes. The most severely hit country with this measure is its neighbor Singapore, which is the largest recipient of Malaysia's live chicken exports. In 2021, Singapore received 90% of Malaysia's live chicken exports, totaling 48.4 million units. According to the Singapore Food Agency, 34% of Singapore's supply of chicken meat comes from Malaysia. This would represent 70-75k mt of meat or 1.5 kg/chicken imported. The ban of 3.6 million chickens suggests Singapore could be facing a shortage of up to 5.4k mt of chicken meat per month as long as the ban lasts and if Singapore doesn't source more chicken meat elsewhere. According to data from the same agency, chicken is the most imported meat product in Singapore, representing 50% of all meat products, followed by pork, with 34%, and beef with 11%.

Source: Tridge and Singapore Department of Statistics

Malaysia's chicken export ban will drive prices in Singapore through the roof in the short-term, open the window for chicken exports from other countries, and likely provoke an increase in consumption of frozen chicken as a substitute for fresh or chilled, which is currently the most preferred and dependent on Malaysia’s exports of live chickens. Other possible effects include an increase in consumption of different types of protein.

However, aside from the immediate price effect, the other possibilities depend on the duration of the ban, which might only last through June if supply in Malaysia normalizes quickly. Malaysia set a price ceiling of MYR 8.90/kg or $2.03/kg on chicken from February 5 to June 30 of this year. It is set to be lifted in July, according to local reports. This, in addition to the removal of import permit requirements of chicken and wheat, which was announced alongside the export ban, will likely improve Malaysian supply substantially.

As for prices, those for Singapore chicken meat had already been consistently rising in the previous months. In fact, according to the Singapore Department of Statistics, whole chicken prices in Singapore rose 9% MoM and 14% YoY in April to SGD 7.21/kg, their highest level on record. The annual increase was also the highest on record. These previous increases mirror the situation in Malaysia, where prices have been also steadily rising. Local reports mentioned some retailers were selling the chicken at double the levels of the current ceiling. In Malaysia, as in the rest of the world, chicken prices have been consistently rising over the past months on the back of global grain supply constraints due to the war in Ukraine and ongoing logistical disruptions that are remnants of the pandemic.

In 2021, Singapore imported 107k mt of frozen chicken (whole or in cuts) out of Brazil, representing the largest frozen chicken provider to Singapore. It is followed by the US, from which Singapore imported 17k mt. If the ban persists, we could see Singapore sourcing more chicken meat out of these countries.