The Impact of Climate Change and Irregular Weather Patterns on Agriculture in South America in 2024

In 2024, agriculture in South America faced unprecedented challenges due to climate change intensifying irregular weather patterns. Unseasonal rainfall, prolonged droughts, and extreme temperature fluctuations disrupted farming cycles globally. These events exposed the vulnerability of agricultural systems to changing climates, threatening food security and rural livelihoods.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information’s (NCEI) Annual 2024 Global Climate Change Report, 2024 marked the warmest year on record. Global temperatures rose by 1.29°C (2.32°F), above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This followed a decade of unprecedented warmth, with the ten hottest years occurring since 2015.

Table 1. Hottest Year Ranking Since 2014

Impact of High Temperature in Agriculture

Rising global temperatures profoundly disrupted agriculture by increasing heat stress on crops, intensifying water scarcity, and expanding the range of pests and diseases, collectively jeopardizing food security and livelihoods worldwide. Some of the most common effects of high temperatures in agriculture included:

• Heat Stress on Crops: Rising temperatures increased heat stress on crops, impairing photosynthesis and reducing yields.
• Water Scarcity: Elevated temperatures accelerated evaporation, reducing freshwater availability and exacerbating drought conditions, which limited irrigation and threatened crop production.
• Pests and Diseases: Warmer temperatures expanded the range of pests and diseases, increasing their prevalence and potentially harming crops.

South America Overview

2024 was marked by record and near-record temperatures across South America, coupled with below-average precipitation in many areas. These extreme conditions caused significant environmental and human impacts, including severe droughts, wildfires, flooding, and disruption of ecosystems and communities. The Amazon rainforest experienced an unprecedented two-year drought, intensifying climate change effects and reducing the region’s capacity to absorb greenhouse gases. This underscored the urgent need for robust climate adaptation strategies to safeguard resources. Some of the most affected countries included:

Brazil

Brazil's agricultural sector faced a severe downturn in 2024, with total production dropping by 7.2% to 292.7 million tons, primarily due to extreme weather conditions.

Graph 1. Brazil’s Agricultural Production Volume

The worst drought in 60 years, particularly in the Center-West, stunted second-harvest corn and wheat, while record-breaking temperatures heightened water stress, reducing yields in soybeans, corn, and coffee. Early frosts in coffee-producing regions further damaged plants and affected bean quality. In the South, catastrophic flooding in Rio Grande do Sul devastated crops like rice, soybeans, and first-harvest corn, with rice hit hardest due to the state’s dominance in national production. Additionally, record-setting wildfires in the Amazon destroyed arable land, degraded soil, and disrupted ecosystems, creating long-term recovery challenges. Some of the most affected crops included:

• Coffee: According to National Supply Company (CONAB), Brazil's 2024 harvest totaled 54.2 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, a 1.6% decline from 2023, despite expectations of higher yields due to biennial cycles.
• Corn: IBGE reports that Brazil's total corn production fell to 114.7 million tons in 2024, with the second harvest significantly impacted by drought and high temperatures disrupting crop growth.
• Soybeans: IBGE reported that soybean production remained Brazil's top crop at 144.9 million tons in 2024, though yields were reduced due to a shortened growing season caused by heat stress and insufficient rainfall.
• Rice: According to IBGE, overall rice production dropped to 10.6 million tons in 2024, as flooding in Rio Grande do Sul caused substantial losses in the state’s fields.

While agricultural production for cereal, legume and oilseed was projected to recover by 2025, reaching 322.6 million tons, this rebound heavily depended on favorable weather conditions, technological advancements, and effective climate adaptation strategies.

Colombia

Colombia's agricultural sector was heavily influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, leading to higher temperatures and reduced rainfall. These climatic shifts disrupted the growth and quality of key crops, while also affecting livestock production, particularly in the dairy sector. The weather patterns had the potential to increase food prices, which could fuel inflationary pressures in the coming months. While some regions experienced the effects of this climate disruption, there were also efforts in the agricultural sector to adapt through climate-resilient practices.

• Coffee: Colombia's coffee production rose by 23% in 2024 to 13.99 million bags, with efforts to improve sustainability and meet market demands despite challenges.

Graph 2. Colombia’s Coffee Production Volume

• Potatoes: Despite El Niño disruptions, industry professionals report that Colombian potato yields were expected to reach 23 to 24 tons per hectare (ha) in 2024, with 110,000 ha farmed by 100,000 farmers, ensuring stable supply for domestic and export markets.
• Rice: El Niño and excessive rainfall caused a 33% to 51% rise in rice prices in 2023, as reported by Improarroz, prompting the government to suspend import duties to stabilize the market and maintain food supply.
• Dairy: The dairy sector faced challenges from El Niño and market conditions, including reduced water availability and competition from other exporting countries.

The ongoing weather challenges severely impacted Colombia's agricultural production, causing disruptions in key crop yields and livestock sectors. The government's response, including measures to stabilize food prices and promote climate-resilient practices, highlighted the importance of adapting to the changing climate.

Ecuador

Ecuador's agricultural sector struggled in 2024 due to climate change, including severe droughts that cut energy production by 70%, leading to daily power outages of up to 14 hours. This disrupted irrigation-dependent farming and raised costs. The drought also affected the Paute Hydroelectric Complex, while fires destroyed 23,450 ha of land. Erratic rainfall, high temperatures, and El Niño further impacted crop yields across the country. Key crops in Ecuador experienced the following effects in 2024:

• Cacao: High international prices allowed farmers to invest in infrastructure, boosting production. The National Association of Cocoa Exporters (Anecacao) reports that Ecuador's cacao sector grew by 6.78% in volume and 155.7% in revenue due to strong global demand and infrastructure improvements.
• Maize: Frustration over low-priced imports led to a 1.4 million tons production in 2023/24, 6.3% lower than the five-year average. However, a 6.16% increase in output is expected for 2024/2025, despite competitiveness challenges from imports.
• Rice: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that rice production reached 1.03 million tons in 2023/24, 14.57% higher than the five-year average. It is also expected to fall by 12.62% YoY in the 2024/25 season to 900,000 tons, due to adverse weather and a need for more disease-resistant varieties to boost yields and competitiveness.

Graph 3. Ecuador’s Maize and Rice Production

• Banana: Exports remained strong, but managing Moko disease and climate change increased costs, reduced yields, and strained profitability, despite a rise in bunch production.
• Shrimp: Strong international demand faced challenges from import restrictions and the energy crisis, which disrupted farming operations and increased costs, lowering production efficiency and profitability.

Ecuador's agricultural industry faced severe climate disruptions, including the energy crisis and extreme weather. Adapting to these challenges is crucial for sustaining growth and protecting key export sectors, with recovery relying on climate resilience and sustainable practices.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

South American countries grappled with the escalating impact of climate change, leading to irregular weather patterns, prolonged droughts, and temperature extremes that disrupted agricultural production. To mitigate these effects and protect agricultural livelihoods, implementing targeted strategies had been essential. Some mitigation strategies included:

• Developing climate-resilient crop varieties: Breeding crops resistant to heat, drought, and extreme weather conditions.
• Implementing water-efficient irrigation systems: Using technologies like drip irrigation and automated irrigation systems (e.g., Netafim and HydroPoint) to deliver water directly to the roots, minimizing waste and improving water use efficiency.
• Utilizing precision agriculture tools: Using sensors, Global Positioning System (GPS), and (internet of things) IoT-based technologies (e.g., John Deere's Precision Agriculture platform) to optimize water usage, monitor soil health, and predict weather patterns, improving overall farm efficiency.
• Adopting vertical farming: Establishing indoor farming systems like Aerofarms and Plenty, which use less water and land while providing year-round crop production, mitigating land degradation and reducing dependency on traditional farming.
• Practicing agroforestry and intercropping: Integrating trees with crops (e.g., Silvopasture systems) to enhance biodiversity, reduce soil erosion, and improve water retention, as seen in agroforestry projects.

The Ongoing Impact of Weather Challenges

The year 2024 highlighted the urgent need for South American agriculture to adapt to the intensifying challenges posed by climate change. With record-breaking temperatures, droughts, and erratic weather patterns, the region's agricultural systems faced unprecedented disruptions, threatening food security and livelihoods. Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador witnessed severe impacts on their agricultural productivity, from reduced crop yields to energy shortages, underscoring the vulnerability of traditional farming practices.

Unfavorable weather conditions are expected to continue throughout 2025, with ongoing challenges for agriculture across South America. Droughts in some areas may impact crop yields, particularly in regions dependent on rain-fed agriculture, while excessive rainfall and flooding in others could disrupt planting and harvest cycles. These climate variations are likely to affect staple crops, livestock, and overall productivity. To adapt, agricultural companies will need to focus on implementing resilient farming practices, such as drought-tolerant crops, improved irrigation systems, and sustainable land management, to mitigate the impact of these unpredictable weather patterns.