Market Insights|1 min read|August 02, 2018

[Tridge Market Update] Walnut: Production Stays Low and Chile to Expand its Market

Global walnut production for 2018/19 is forecast at 2.1 million tonnes on an in-shell basis and 895,000 tonnes on a kernel basis. The final production in the US for 2017 totaled 570,000 tonnes.

Content
World Walnut Production Forecast Lower for 2018/19
Who Will Get the Nuts Crackin’?
Chile Gets Further Caught Up in Trump’s Trade War
References
Author:
Jane HanIndustry Analyst - Tridge

World Walnut Production Forecast Lower for 2018/19

Global walnut production for 2018/19 is forecast at 2.1 million tonnes on an in-shell basis and 895,000 tonnes on a kernel basis. Both are down 1% each from the previous year’s production.¹ Despite higher output from Chile and the U.S., lower yields in China and Ukraine over the past two years have contributed to overall production reduction.

China has been hit particularly hard in 2018 by unfavorable weather conditions. Frost and snow this April in Northern China, a concentrated cultivation area for walnuts, negatively affected the nut growth. Impacted regions are suggested to have experienced a 20% to 50% loss.¹ 

The final production in the U.S. for 2017 totaled 570,000 tonnes, which is 3.4% below USDA’s estimate and 8.3% down from 2016’s production. Heavy winter rains, temperature fluctuations, and spring floodings are to blame for less-than-expected yield. The bloom period for 2018, however, has witnessed significantly less weather-related damages. Plans to expand nut-bearing acreages and vested interested in walnut harvesting will contribute to increased production. 

Who Will Get the Nuts Crackin’?

50% of walnuts are currently sold in their shells while the rest are sold as kernels, 35% and 15% of which are machine and hand cracked, respectively.¹ While in-shell walnuts are expected to maintain a steady market share, machine-cracked walnuts are expanding as part of a global movement towards using automation in manufacturing. There is a growing investment opportunity in developing electronic-sorting and machine-cracking technologies for walnut production. 

featured: ripe walnuts 

Chile Gets Further Caught Up in Trump’s Trade War

Previously, India announced that walnut will be subjected to a 100% tariff, which was initially aimed to hurt the U.S. walnut industry. However, India’s import duty on walnuts is non-discriminatory, meaning it may threaten Chile’s hard-earned access to India’s consumer market. India has always been a strategic destination for Chilean walnuts, as India’s consumption of nuts is the highest in October when Chile is the main supplier. Although India sought exemption from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum back in May, failed negotiation has recently prompted India to impose an additional 20% rate on pre-existing tax on walnuts. 120% tariff on walnuts, as a result, is set to take effect on 4th of August, 2018. The U.S.-China trade war, on the other hand, looks to benefit Chile, which has free-trade agreements with Beijing.² Recent tariff increase on the U.S. nuts may prompt China to turn to Chile and Australia for walnut imports.


Tridge is currently making a connection between major walnut buyers from India and Turkey with rising walnut suppliers from various countries with competitive prices. The item specification of walnuts varies according to its size, color, moisture content, and more. 

Tridge connects buyers with suppliers who meet the required specifications at the most competitive price. For Suppliers, we identify trade opportunities with genuine buyers from various different regions. Through our distinctive network of world-wide scope local agents, we identify the most competitive condition customized for every buyer and supplier. Seize new walnut trade opportunities with Tridge today. 


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Editor: Wonjung Yun / wonjung.yun@tridge.com

Sourcing Team Expert: Elly Lee / eunjeong.lee@tridge.com

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References

1. “Walnut Round Table.” World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress, 21-23 May 2018, nutfruitcongress.org/sevilla2018/files/pagina/1526997043_Walnut_Round_Table_Gary_Ford.pdf

2. Neuman, Scott. “Who Wins A U.S.-China Trade War? Maybe Australia.” NPR, 3 Apr. 2018, www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/04/03/599081151/who-wins-a-u-s-china-trade-war-maybe-australia.


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