Ups and Downs of the Australian Sorghum Market

2021-22 is one of the most successful years for Australia's sorghum production. A large crop has been favored by adequate soil moisture in Queensland and New Wales, accounting for 65% and 35% of the country's output. Good pre-sowing weather conditions played a significant role in increasing sorghum acreage. The sorghum planting area jumped by 22% in 2021-22 compared with 2020-21 to 624,000 hectares. Rising import demand for coarse grains motivated local farmers to boost production.

2022-23 harvest prospects do not look as bright as the current season's level. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics pegs sorghum output at 1.6-1.7 million mt in the next season, down 1 million mt YoY. The fall in production reflects a decrease in the sowing areas, which are estimated to fall by 11% YoY to 557,000 hectares. In 2022-23, Australia will likely ramp up the production of more profitable crops than coarse grains, expanding the acreage under canola and pulses. In W2 May 2022, Australian canola export price stood at USD900-910/mt FOB, 75% more than a year earlier.

Source: UN Comtrade, ABS

Australian sorghum exports are soaring this season. In H1 2022-22, the country shipped 620,907 mt of sorghum to foreign markets, up 300% YoY. Robust Chinese demand drives export sales of this coarse grain, primarily used as livestock feed. In March 2022, Chinese sorghum imports jumped to 132,600 mt, a 308% increase compared to March 2021.

Exports in April and May 2022 are estimated to increase as the new crop commodity arrives. However, Australian ports are overloaded with wheat and canola shipments at the moment, leaving less space for channeling sorghum. More demand for wheat might be coming within the next few weeks, as India has banned its wheat exports, putting more pressure on port facilities.