US Fruit Juice Prices Expected to Rise as New Tariffs Hit Over 80% of Imports

Apple Juice Prices Set to Surge Under New Tariffs

Recent United States (US) tariff adjustments, particularly those enforced in early Apr-25, are sending significant ripples through the American food and beverage sector, with fruit juice imports bearing a substantial burden. Analysis by the International Food Policy Research Institute indicates (IFPRI) that these new supplemental tariffs affect over 80% of US fruit juice imports. This development underscores the nation's heavy reliance on international sources for these popular consumer goods and signals impending price escalations. Apple juice, particularly, is on a direct path to becoming more expensive due to recent tariff adjustments.

Tariffs Force Sourcing Changes and Cost Increases

The sweeping tariff regime, which includes a baseline 10% supplemental tariff on imports from most trading partners and higher reciprocal rates for specific countries, will significantly affect fruit juice imports, especially from key suppliers. China, a major global producer and historically the leading source of apple juice concentrate for the United States, now faces substantial levies. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 80.9% of fruit juice import categories are highly exposed to these new tariffs. This is critical for the US market, where nearly all apple juice is imported—about 430 million gallons annually—compared to just 16 million gallons exported.

Figure 1. US Apple Juice Trade Flow

Source: Tridge Trade Data

Apple juice, a staple in many American households and a key ingredient in children's food products and other beverages, is already seeing the fallout across the sector. Wholesale costs for apple juice concentrate reportedly surged by 33% in early 2025 compared to the previous year, with further increases anticipated. China, which accounted for 31% of the US concentrated apple juice imports in 2024, now faces tariffs as high as 34% specifically on apple juice, on top of broader country-specific duties. This has prompted a noticeable shift in sourcing, with US importers increasingly turning to alternatives like Türkiye, which supplied 39% of US apple juice concentrate imports in 2024. However, a complete shift of China's 31% share would be a considerable volume for any single country to absorb quickly without impacting price or global supply balances. Türkiye apple juice volumes destined for the US have been relatively stable since 2022, levitating around 492,106 cubic meters (m³). On the other hand, Türkiye's apple juice export value shows a significant market share for the US, with 45.87% in 2023. Therefore, US importers will likely pursue a multi-pronged strategy, such as increasing volumes from Türkiye where possible, actively developing or expanding relationships with secondary suppliers like those in Poland, other European countries, or potentially South Korea, and continually evaluating the landed cost from China inclusive of tariffs. 

Figure 2. Türkiye Apple Juice Trade Flow

Source: Tridge Trade Data

US domestic production offers limited immediate relief. Most of the US apple crop is destined for the fresh fruit market, which often commands higher prices for growers than apples sold for processing. According to estimates cited by Intello Labs, approximately 71% of the US apple crop was utilized for fresh fruit consumption, with only around 29% going into processing, including apple juice concentrate, dried apples, cider, and purée. Tridge highlighted previously that global apple production faced challenges in 2023, with major producers like China and Poland anticipating decreased harvests. This led to a 19% YoY decline in US apple juice imports from January to July 2023 and an 11% YoY price increase for apple juice in US retail outlets by Oct-23. Industry experts note that American apple processors cannot currently ramp up production significantly to meet the shortfall from imports. While some domestic processors might see an opportunity in higher prices, the infrastructure and agricultural focus (primarily on fresh fruit) are not geared for a rapid pivot to large-scale juice concentrate production. Consequently, US consumers are likely to face higher prices for fruit juices and products containing fruit juice concentrate, and potentially, reduced availability of specific options as supply chains continue to adjust to this new trade landscape. The broader implications suggest a challenging period for US importers, manufacturers relying on fruit juice ingredients, and ultimately, the American consumer.

Figure 3. US Apple Juice Import Volume 2020-2024

Source: Tridge