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W1: Weekly Canola & Rapeseed Update

Updated Jan 10, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W1 in the global canola and rapeseed landscape. In summary, global vegetable oil supplies are expected to expand as a result of India's increased canola plantings and Australia's anticipated record canola production. In Poland, further price drops on the rapeseed market are anticipated in 2023, primarily as a result of diminishing demand. In 2023, Ukraine is expected to expand the area of oilseed, including rapeseed, as the cost of a ton of oilseeds is higher and the logistics costs per ton are lower.


Crop Look in Australia and India Sets to Boost Global Vegetable Oil Supplies

Global vegetable oil supplies are expected to expand as a result of India's increased canola plantings and Australia's anticipated record canola production. Larger canola harvests in Australia and India could offer comfort to consumers of edible oils around the world at a time when global supply of vegetable oils has expanded more slowly than use. Vegetable oil prices remain significantly higher than the historical averages, albeit having fallen from the all-time highs reached earlier in the year. Rapeseed that has undergone genetic modification is referred to as canola. With the help of an 11% increase in land, Australia's current canola harvest is predicted to surpass last year's record crop by 4%.


Rapeseed on MATIF Is the Most Expensive in Over a Month

The majority of yesterday's oil futures quotes on international stock exchanges resulted in price increases. On Matif, rapeseed for February delivery increased 1.9% yesterday on the Paris Stock Exchange and came in at USD 638.31/MT, which is a 22.9% decrease YoY. On January 3, pricing was the highest since November 30 2021. On the Winnipeg Stock Exchange, Canadian canola rose 0.7%, January 3 and were USD 645.11/MT, with a 17.0% decrease in cost over 2021. January 3, US soybean prices dropped 2.1% to USD 546.46/MT. The cost of soybeans has climbed by 10.7% during the previous 12 months.

What Prospects for the Wheat and Rapeseed Market in 2023?

Further price drops on the rapeseed market are anticipated in 2023, primarily as a result of diminishing demand and the slowing economy. The drop scenario is strongly supported by a more favourable seed balance in the 2022/23 growing season, but rapeseed stocks will stay at a low level. The rapeseed harvest in 2023 will be the deciding factor; according to IGC, a lesser area of crops will be available for harvest in the 2023–2024 season, a loss of 2.8% YoY. Rapeseed costs will fluctuate in tandem with oil costs. Even while it's usually predicted that this commodity will continue to fall, there are still some dangers that could make things different.

United States

On the SWOT Exchange, Canola Rose by 0.40%

Oats, uncooked rice, and Canadian rapeseed all experienced different price movements on the SWOT and ICE exchanges. By January 6, Canadian rapeseed increased from USD 640.78-643.32/MT, or 0.40%.

Prices for Canola Fell on the SWOT Exchange in United States

Oats, uncooked rice, and Canadian rapeseed all experienced divergent price movements on the SWOT and ICE exchanges. Oats, uncooked rice, and canola quotations all increased for W1 during the week of December 23–30. Canola prices turned negative again after a week of gains, dropping more than 1% WoW. Canola decreased from USD 647.57-640.78/MT or 1.05% by December 30 as a result.


Ukraine Will Expand Oil Crop Cultivation Areas in 2023

It is anticipated that it will enhance the area where oil plants like rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower are sown. This is due to the greater cost per tonne of oilseeds and the lower cost per tonne of logistics. So, per hectare, farmers will be able to make more money. Crop rotation is not impacted by this favourable macroeconomic element for farmers.

The Area of Winter Crops in Ukraine Has Decreased Sharply, but the Area Under Oil Crops Is Expected to Increase

Long-lasting rains in September prevented the planned regions from being planted with winter crops, and the conflict and weather conditions in 2022 made it challenging for home farmers to grow and sell agricultural crops. In addition, compared to 1.16M hectares the previous year, 1M hectares, or 104% of the projection, were planted with winter rapeseed.

The Warm Weather in Some Places in Ukraine Awakened Winter Crops

End-of-December weather was out of the ordinary for the corresponding winter season. The winter crops were disrupted in some areas as a result of a rise in temperature. Rodent densities on winter wheat and rapeseed fields did not reach the economic threshold of harm, according to surveys. The lowering of the relief was seen in the forest-steppe and steppe zones, where the death of 5-20% of mouse-like rodents owing to the flooding of tunnels. The potential for an increase in the quantity and danger of mouse-like rodents, especially in the winter, is possible in the future if there is a stable snow cover since rodents will continue to live there provided there is enough food available.

Snow Mold Develops in Thickened Crops of Winter Rapeseed in the Ternopil Region

2-3% of plants in thicker winter rapeseed crops develop snow mould in some Ternopil region farms. Due to changes in temperature indicators and the stock of infection, the causal agents of fungal diseases such as downy mildew, alternariosis, fomosis, powdery mildew, and sporadically bacteriosis (Ternopil region) are generally progressing in winter rapeseed crops.

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