Significant Fall in the Price of Rapeseed on the Paris Stock Exchange
Prices fell during W10 of trading in crude futures on international stock exchanges. The price of rapeseed on the Paris exchange dropped especially precipitously, reaching its lowest level on Friday since June 21, 2021. At the same time, W9 saw the first time since June 2021 that the price was below USD 536.14/MT. Other oilseeds also saw a price decrease. However, US soybean prices are only marginally lower than in early March, and the price of Canadian canola on Friday is at the same level as on January 24. Following Friday's trading session, Rapeseed on Matif is priced at USD 57.26/MT less than Canadian canola traded on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange.
Lower Forecast for Global Oilseed Production
As a result of lower soybean and sunflower seed output in Argentina, as well as higher rapeseed production in Australia, the overall oilseed production forecast for 2023 is lowered by 6.8MMT to 629.9MMT. Due to a larger area and higher yields, the estimated rapeseed production in Australia rose by 1MMT to 8.3MMT.
Expected Rapeseed Harvest in the EU Is the Highest Since 2014 With Imports From Australia and Ukraine in the Background
According to the most recent report, the European Commission expects the European Union to produce 19.6 MMT of rapeseed in 2023. The forecast is much higher than the production from the previous year, which was estimated in this dry 2022 at 17.1MMT. The biggest rapeseed harvest since 2014, when more than 20MMT of rapeseed was last harvested in the EU, occurred at the same time. The reason for this significant growth is that European farmers have increased the area under this crop by 500K ha, or over 5.9M ha. In the current 2022/23 seasons, analysts anticipate an increase in EU rapeseed stockpiles as supply from inexpensive Australian exports and significant imports from Ukraine via Poland and Romania surpass demand.
What Are the Quotes for Wheat, Corn, and Canola?
Wheat prices for delivery in March 2023 decreased by USD 16.87/MT on the futures market, going from USD 304.82/MT at the beginning of the month to USD 299.73/MT at the conclusion. For rapeseed, the regular futures prices are USD 589.816/MT in May, USD 587.61/MT in August, and USD 589.07/MT in November.
Prices for Australian Canola Keep Declining on March 10, 2023
Australian canola futures are trading at USD 453.80/MT in Port Kembla on March 10, 2023, down by USD 23/MT from this time in W9, the lowest price since 2023. It is due to the local market following the trend in canola prices on the global level.
Exports of Canola From Australia Decreased by 6% MoM in January
Exports of canola from Australia decreased by 6% MoM in January 2023 to 715,100MT, representing a decline of 6% YoY. Shipments of oilseeds have reached 2.3MMT overall since the start of the current season, up 42% YoY.
ABARES Increase Estimates for Record Wheat and Canola Crops in Australia
According to estimations made public today by ABARES, Australia is expected to produce 39.2 MMT of wheat, 14.1 MMT of barley, and 8.3 MMT of canola from the 2022/23 winter crop harvest. The estimate for canola is 13% higher than the 7.3MMT forecast made in December, which shattered the previous high of 6.8MMT.
High Production and Palmolein Imports to Blame for Low Market Price of Rapeseed?
The market prices for the rapeseed crop have been hanging around the minimum support price (MSP) or even below it in some areas over the past few weeks, putting the rapeseed growers in a bind. Rapeseed has an MSP set by the government of USD 66.18 per quintal for the current Rabi marketing season 2023/24. According to data provided by the agriculture department, as of February 3, 2023, the area planted with mustard for the 2022/23 growing season was estimated to be 9.8M hectares, an increase of 777K hectares from the 2021/22 growing season. The farmers agreed that since arrivals are rising every day, a further decline in pricing cannot be ruled out. While one of the reasons for reduced rates can be an increase in the quantity of mustard, another reason was the heavy imports of refined palm olein.
A Decrease in the Demand for Importers Caused a Decrease in Export Prices for Rapeseed
Prices for non-GM rapeseed have been falling on the Ukrainian export market in the direction of the western border since the end of February. The slow pace of trade and consumer activity aided in the formation of a negative pricing trend. While buyers mostly built up a base of raw materials for operations or moved to buy other oil crops, demand from importers was largely situational.
In Volyn, 50K Hectares of Rapeseed Were Sown
At Volyn, fieldwork for the spring has begun. Rapeseed for winter use is being fertilized by farmers. For the 2023 crop, 50K hectares of winter rapeseed were sown.
The Volume of Rapeseed Acreage in Russia’s Krasnoyarsk Territory Will Grow by Almost 10% In 2023
In 2023, the Krasnoyarsk Territory's rapeseed-planted area will grow by 8.8% and total 252K hectares. The Krasnoyarsk Territory produced 426,500MT of rapeseed in 2022, with a yield of 18.9 kg/ha on average. The region overtook other regions in Russia in terms of rapeseed harvest volume for the fourth consecutive year. Around 11% of all Russian rapeseed production comes from Krasnoyarsk.