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W10: Weekly Coffee & Tea Update

Updated Mar 14, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W10 in the global coffee and tea landscape. Regarding the coffee market, the ICO's Composite Indicator Price increased 11.4% MoM in February 2023, averaging 174.77 US cents/lb, which is still down more than 25% since February 2022. Brazilian coffee exports in February fell 33% YoY to 2.4M bags. The New York Stock Exchange's Arabica coffee futures market saw an increase in prices for W10, but experienced a week marked by a drop in exports from Brazil and Colombia. Colombia produced 10% more coffee in February 2023 compared to the same month last year, with 1.025M bags. In Ethiopia, the minimum coffee price set by the Ethiopian government dropped by 1% WoW in W10. Lastly, Kenyan tea worth USD 1M is being held at the Port of Karachi as Pakistan struggles with a dollar shortage.


Coffee Production Threatened by Global Climate Change

Negative effects linked to global climate change have an impact on coffee production in different parts of the world. Experts from the State Association of Scientific and Applied Research (CSIRO), the National Science Agency of Australia, the University of South Queensland, and other institutions agreed to this conclusion. Among the top 12 coffee-growing regions, natural disasters have significantly increased in frequency between 1980 and 2020 as a result of climate change.

World Coffee Moderates Its Price in a Year Given the Prospect of Increased Production

Despite their most recent recovery in February to approximately USD 175 cents/lb produced, world coffee prices have decreased over 2022 on the likelihood of higher production. According to the International Coffee Organization's (OIC) most recent report, average coffee costs per pound increased by 11.4% MoM in February. However, given the improvement in supply, the composite index of this organisation has fallen by more than 25% since February 2022.

ICO Report Shows Sharp Increase of All Coffee Prices in February

According to the ICO's latest market report, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) increased 11.4% MoM in February 2023, averaging 174.77 US cents/lb and having a median value of 173.20 US cents/lb. In February 2023, average prices for all group indicators rose. In February 2023, the prices for Colombian Milds and Other Milds rose by 8.9% and 11.1%, to 238.39 and 229.73 US cents/lb, respectively. Brazilian Naturals and Robustas, on the other hand, increased 14.8% and 8.3%, respectively, to an average of 195.18 and 103.93 US cents/lb. While the ICE New York market decreased by 13.2%, the London Futures market grew by 9.8%.


Safras Raises Forecast for Coffee in Brazil 22/23 and Sees Slow Sales in the New Cycle

Brazil produced more coffee than was anticipated for the 2022/23 cycle because of the harvest that took place in 2022. Brazil's production of coffee for the 2022/23 cycle exceeded expectations, with the world's largest producers' harvest estimated at 58.9M bags of 60 kg.

Coffee Exports From Brazil Fall 33% YoY In February, to 2.4M Bags

Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) statistics show that 2.396M 60 kg bags of the commodity were shipped nationally in February 2023, generating USD 505.9 million in foreign exchange revenue. The performance indicates declines in volume and billing of 33.3% and 38.5%, respectively, compared to February 2022, while the average price per bag, at USD 211.13, fell 7.9% YoY.  In the first eight months of the 2022/23 crop year, Brazil accumulates exports of 24.621M bags, a volume 7.7% lower than that shipped abroad from July 2021 to February 2022.

Uncertainties With Demand Weigh and Coffee Retreats More Than 3% In NY

The market was once again affected by concerns about the world's coffee consumption in the early afternoon of this Wednesday, March 8. The quotations on the New York Stock Exchange declined by more than 3%. May/23 was down 635 points at 12:34 pm (Brazilian time), July/23 was down 625 points at 175.65 cents/lbp, September/23 was down 605 points at 174.30 cents/lbp, and December/23 was down 560 points at 172.902 cents/lbp.

Brazilian Coffee Market Should Continue With Slow Business

The Brazilian coffee market experienced a day of stretched negotiations on Tuesday, July 7. The development of values is hampered by the volatility and ups and downs of Arabica and Robusta prices on the New York and London Stock Exchanges, respectively. Also, a significant decline in New York during the morning pushed many sellers out of the market. A few isolated lots were moved after the stock market recovered, but the buyers stayed discreet. Good arabica coffee, with 15% of the collection priced at USD 214.00–219.73 per bag in the south of Minas Gerais, is up from USD 212.09–219.73 per bag previously.

United States

After Confirmation of Drop in Shipments, Coffee Opens With Technical Adjustments in New York

On Friday, October 10, the New York Stock Exchange's technical price adjustments for the Arabica coffee futures market started trading. When the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) revealed a large decrease in exports from Brazil last month, coffee opened the day with modifications.  May/23 was up 30 points and traded at 175.35 cents/lbp. July/23 was up 10 points and quoted at 174.10 cents/lbp, whereas May/23 was up 30 points and traded at 175.35 cents/lbp, September/23 was a high of 25 points, worth 173.35 cents/lbp and December/23 was a high of 35 points, worth 171.80 cents/lbp. 

Coffee Has a Week Marked by a Drop in Exports From Brazil and Colombia

In the trading session this Friday, March 10, the New York Stock Exchange's Arabica coffee futures market saw an increase in prices for W10. There were gains of 275 points in May/23, which traded at 177.80 cents/lbp, 250 points in July/23, which was quoted at 177.10 cents/lbp, 235 points in September/23, which traded at 175.45 cents/lbp, and 225 points in December/23, which traded at 173.70 cents/lbp. Although reaching a high today, coffee's weekly index was low for W10 at 1.39%. Colombia reported a 6% decrease in February, dropping under 1M bags throughout the month. Brazil had a decline that was even more dramatic, falling 33% from the previous year.

Coffee Market Operates With a Fall This Thursday Afternoon in NY, While Advancing in London

Arabica coffee futures contracts traded with a devaluation on the New York Stock Exchange this Thursday, March 9, when they dropped from 200 to 175 points. In this trading session on the London Stock Exchange, negotiations produce gains. The May/23 contract dropped 175 points and is priced at 175.60 cents/lbp, while the March/23 contract had a decline of 200 points and is currently quoted at 177.55 cents/lbp. In the case of July/23, it was traded at 174.95 cents/lbp and operated with a depreciation of 185 points.

Coffee Maintains Declines This Thursday, March 9, in NY

This Thursday, March 9, saw the opening of trading for the principal contracts on the New York Stock Exchange's arabica coffee futures market, which are still at low levels. May/23 was down 45 points, traded at 176.90 cents/lbp, July/23 was down 35 points, quoted at 176.45 cents/lbp, September/23 was down 30 points, worth 175 cents/lbp and December/23 had a drop of 30 points, worth 173.30 cents/lbp.

Coffee Has Price Adjustments in The US, but Concerns About Supply Can Sustain Prices

This Tuesday, March 7, the  Arabica coffee futures on the New York Stock Exchange start trading with technical price modifications. After soaring, the market has adjusted itself, helped along by a decline in exports from Colombia. Given the uncertainty surrounding Brazil, concerns about the global supply continue to support prices. A devaluation of 65 points occurred in May/23, worth 179.65 cents/lbp, 80 points in July/23, 178.90 cents/lbp, 80 points in September/23, 177.50 cents/lbp, and 55 points in December/23, costing 175.85 cents/lbp.

Arabica Coffee Futures Market Returns to New Highs in New York

The Arabica coffee futures market resumed attempting new highs for pricing in the trading session on Monday, June 6, on the New York Stock Exchange after beginning the day with technical changes (ICE Future US). May/23 was up 190 points, traded at 179.75 cents/lbp, July/23 was up 170 points, quoted at 178.90 cents/lbp, September/23 was high of 175 points, traded for 177.40 cents/lbp and December/23 had an appreciation of 225 points, worth 175.90 cents/lbp.


Colombia Reports 10% Increase in Arabica Production in February; Exports Have a Drop

According to information made public on Monday, March 6, by the National Federation of Coffee Farmers (FNC), Colombia produced 10% more coffee in the month of February than it did in 2022, with 1.025M bags. With a considerable decline in production due to the La Nia climate phenomenon last year, the neighboring country is slowly making an effort to increase coffee production month after month. Colombia produced 928,000 bags during the same time period the previous year. Following the extended La Nina phenomenon, the figure begins to indicate a recovery in the volume of the harvest. Compared to the 1.8m bags produced during the same period last year, Colombian production increased by 5% to around 1.9M bags in the first two months of 2023.

Coffee Has Support in Numbers From Colombia and Ends With Appreciation in New York

W10 began WITH the appreciation of the Arabica coffee futures market on the New York Stock Exchange (ICE Future US). Contracts advanced 1.38% abroad last month after Colombia reported a decline in shipments. May/23 increased by 245 points to 180.30 cents/lbp, July/23 increased by 250 points to 179.70 cents/lbp, September/23 increased by 265 points to 178.30 cents/lbp, and December/23 increased by 275 points to 176.40 cents/lbp.


Low Supply of the Green Coffee Beans in Indonesia for Q1 Due to Weather Conditions

Until mid-March 2023, the supply of green coffee beans from farmers in Southern Sumatra, Indonesia, is still low. The coffee producers in Lampung, Sumatra, predict that farmers' coffee supply in the Q1 of 2023 will be lower compared to Q1 of 2022. It is due to weather conditions with even and high rain intensity from December 2022 until W11. If this weather condition continues, it is estimated that coffee supply in the Southern Sumatera region in the Q1 of 2023 will fall around 30% YoY.

Indonesia’s Coffee Production Increases by 120,000MT

One of the country's main exports is coffee. Indonesia's various coffee varieties are well-known throughout the world and are even a major component of its exports. Indonesia is producing more coffee on average and will increase production by 1.1% YoY to 794,500MT in 2022. However, compared to ten years ago, Indonesia's coffee production has increased significantly, jumping from 675,900MT in 2013 to 794,500MT, a rise of 118,900MT or nearly 120,000MT. The production rate increased by 17.6%.


Dak Lak Coffee Has More Export Orders After International Trade in Vietnam

The People's Committee of Dak Lak province organised the International Trade Connection Conference in 2023 on March 11, in Buon Ma Thuot City, as part of the 8th Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Festival. The conference is a significant event highlight. the advancement of the Vietnamese coffee industry generally and Buon Ma Thuot coffee specifically to new heights, achieving parity with the global coffee industry. More than 400 representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Ministries, Central branches, provincial and city leaders, ambassadors and consul generals from other nations, as well as representatives from associations, organisations, and businesses that produce and process coffee attended the conference.

Agricultural Product Prices in Vietnam on March 11, 2023: Coffee Price Dropped

Particularly, the price of coffee is 47,400 VND/kg (USD 2.01/kg) in Di Linh district (Lam Dong). The cost of a kg of coffee in Bao Loc and Lam Ha is 47,300 VND (USD 2.01/kg). The current price of coffee in Dak Lak's Cu M'gar district is 47,800 VND/kg (USD 2.03/kg). The cost of coffee today in the Ea H'leo area of Buon Ho (Dak Lak) was 47,700 VND/kg (USD 2.02/kg). Today's price for coffee in Pleiku and La Grai, Gia Lai, is 47,700 VND/kg (USD 2.02/kg). Meanwhile, Gia Lai residents can buy at a lower rate of 47,600 VND/kg (USD 2.02/kg) in the Chu Prong district.

Coffee Prices in Vietnam Today, March 8, 2023: The Market Simultaneously Increased Slightly

Today, March 8, coffee prices on the domestic market rose by USD 0.0042/kg in comparison to yesterday. In particular, the cost of Lam Dong coffee is currently USD 2.01 VND/kg in the three districts of Di Linh, Bao Loc, and Lam Ha. In Cu M'gar district (Dak Lak), the price of coffee today remained at 47,900 VND/kg (USD 2.03/kg). In Ea H'leo and Buon Ho districts, today's coffee price in Dak Lak is 47,800 VND/kg (USD 2.03/kg).

Coffee Prices in Vietnam Today, March 6, 2023: Highest at USD 2.04/KG

Compared to yesterday, the price of coffee on the domestic market was unchanged today, March 6. In particular, the cost of Lam Dong coffee is currently USD 2.02/kg in the three districts of Di Linh, Bao Loc, and Lam Ha. Currently, the cost of a kilogramme of coffee in Dak Lak's Cu M'gar district is set at USD 2.04. The cost of coffee in Ea H'leo and Buon Ho districts today is USD 2.03/kg.


The Minimum Coffee Price in Ethiopia Dropped 1% WoW in W10

The minimum coffee price set by the Ethiopian government dropped by 1% WoW in W10. The prices released on March 7, 2023, for Yirgacheffe Washed G1 are USD 3.68/lb and Nekemte Natural G5 USD 1.65/lb while in W9 their respective prices were USD 3.71/lb and USD 1.67/lb. Even though prices have slightly dropped, it’s still difficult to get competitive offers from many speculative suppliers mainly because the overhead costs of coffee processing and vertical integration prices are still at their peak.


Why the Government Set a Fixed Coffee Farm Gate Price

The fixed price of good quality coffee cherries this season is USD 0.38/kg, per a NAEB communiqué on February 23, 2023. If there are buyers, farm gate prices give farmers the chance to sell their products for more money. For example, on February 11, 2022, NAEB announced that farmers would have to sell quality coffee cherries to NAEB at a minimum price of USD 0.38/kg, an increase of 65% from USD 0.23/kg in 2022.



USD 1M Kenyan Tea Held at Karachi Port as Dollar Shortage Hits Pakistan

As Pakistan struggles with a dollar shortage that prevents banks from issuing traders with the letter of credit that is necessary before offloading, Kenyan tea worth USD 1M is being held at the Port of Karachi. According to traders, at least 200 containers containing 4.8M kg of tea are being held at the port, which is negatively affecting sales in Kenya and driving up prices.


No Income Tax on Agricultural Produce, Including Tea for Next 2 Fiscal Years in Bengal, India

According to West Bengal's Finance Minister Chandrima Bhattacharya, the state government has decided that farmers will not be required to pay income tax on any agricultural products for the subsequent two fiscal years. The state government has also declared the temporary suspension of two types of cess on unprocessed tea leaves.


Ugandan Coffee Ranked Third Best Globally After Ethiopia and Kenya

Ugandan coffee has been ranked third best globally behind Ethiopia and Kenya by a recently concluded survey by Professional Coffee tasters certified by Coffee Quality Institute (CQI). The quality and quantity of Ugandan coffee is improving over the years due to support and aid by the government through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, including free seedlings to farmers, continued research on coffee diseases, and management programs under the National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO). Uganda is targeting to reach an export volume of 20M 60kg bags annually, up from the current 6.28M bags achieved in FY2021/22.

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