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Analysis & Reports

Tridge Analysis

W10: Weekly Maize (Corn) Update

Updated Mar 16, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives analyze what happened in W10 in the global maize (corn) market. In summary, the US requested formal trade consultations with Mexico over its plans to limit imports of genetically modified corn and other genetically modified agricultural products. USDA has inspected 15.3MMT of corn for overseas delivery since September 1, 2023. Brazil has planted 39.1% of their 2022/23 safrinha corn as of February 24, 2023, slower than normal due to the delayed soybean harvest. Argentina has granted an exceptional extension for 180 days for shipments of grain corn due to the drought, while activity on the Ukrainian market decreased due to difficulty finding buyers. Maize wholesale prices in Tanzania in March 2023 have increased by 100% YoY to USD 51.2/100kg. Zambia offers Kenyan farmers land to grow maize in Zambia.

United States

US Demands Formal Talks With Mexico Over GM Corn Dispute (Mar 6)

The US requested formal trade consultations with Mexico over its plans to limit imports of genetically modified corn and other genetically modified agricultural products. The consultations are the first step towards a US request for a dispute settlement panel under the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA). If no resolution is reached, the dispute could further damage US-Mexico relations.

Corn Inspections Increase in the US (Mar 7)

Inspections of corn for export increased in W9, while evaluations of beans and wheat fell. USDA has inspected 15.3MMT of corn for overseas delivery since September 1, 2023

Global Corn Production Has Been Reduced by the USDA (Mar 8)

USDA raised global corn production but increased ending stocks, resulting in a total of 1,147.52B tons of corn and 295.46M tons of ending stocks.

Demand for Corn Is Slowing in US (Mar 10)

Corn prices continued to decline due to macroeconomic expectations, despite the good performance of export sales from the USA. BAGE lowered its forecast for corn production in Argentina, and South Korea will purchase 69KT of corn. The supply of corn on the Ukrainian market remains significant, while demand continues to slow.

Brazil

Brazilian Market of Corn Must Have an Extension of the Off-Season (Mar 6)

The situation has improved in the Midwest, with corn planting progressing and may end in the first ten days of March. However, the soybean harvest delay is slowing down the corn harvests. Consumers are holding corn prices for another month while growers hold soybeans in warehouses and sell corn. Consumers seem not to worry about this picture and even make room for sellers to start making volumes for exports through the ports of Rio Grande and Imbituba.

2022/23 Summer Corn Harvest Reaches 35.4% in Brazil (Mar 6)

The harvest of the 2022/23 summer corn crop in Brazil reached 35.4% of the estimated area of 4.188Mha until March 3, 2023, according to a survey by SAFRAS & Mercado. Harvesting works reached 67.2% of the area in Rio Grande do Sul, 50.9% in Santa Catarina, 28% in Paraná, and 22.4% in São Paulo. In Goiás, the total harvest reached 7.1%, in Minas Gerais, 4.8%, and in Mato Grosso do Sul, 4.2%. In the same period in 2022, the harvest reached 44.8%. The average harvest in the last five years for the period is 33.5%.

Rains in Brazil Affect Corn Harvest, but Price Remains Stable (Mar 6)

Rains continue to limit the harvest of summer corn crops, limiting the sowing of the second season but the price remains stable in Brazil.

Safrinha Corn 39% Planted in Brazil vs. 52% In 2022 (Mar 7)

Brazilian farmers have planted 39.1% of their 2022/23 safrinha corn as of February 24, 2023, slower than normal due to the delayed soybean harvest. Safrinha planting is most advanced in Mato Grosso, where 56.4% of the corn has been planted. Brazil expects to plant 14.9Mha this 2023, compared to 14.8Mha in 2022. The safrinha crop represents approximately three-quarters of Brazil's total corn production.

Corn Export Remains the Same in Brazil (Mar 7)

In the Brazilian corn export market, premiums retreated to USD 0.60/bushel for July23, USD 105 for Aug23, and backed down to USD 105 for September and USD 115 for October. With a small exception at Ferrovia, in Maringá-PR, export business remained at a standstill. In Paraguay, the priority remains soy, while in Argentina, FOB Argentine corn prices closed at around USD 297 for March, USD 293 for April, USD 292 for May, USD 270 for June, and USD 266 for July. Brazilian ports would reach a little over USD (BRL 100/sack, 19% above current prices.

Brazilian Corn Export Market Remains Sluggish (Mar 9)

In the Brazilian corn market for export, the movement continues with the slowness seen, since exports do not take off, according to what TF Agroeconomia says.

Corn Market Should Consolidate Retracted Week in Brazil (Mar 10)

The Chicago Commodity Exchange traded with mixed quotations, and the dollar rose against the real, while the Brazilian corn market remained dragged by stable prices and freight rates.

Argentina

Argentinian Suppliers Report Low Stocks of Popcorn From the 2022 Crop in W10 (Mar 8)

In W10, Argentinian suppliers of popcorn crops reported they are almost out of stock of the 2022 crop, and supply is not enough to reach the new crop in April 2023. However, the forecast for the new 2023 popcorn crop has not been positive due to the lack of rain for the third year in a row. The acreage decreased, implantation was delayed, and in recent weeks an air frost damaged the crop. Prices are firm and are forecasted to increase in the following months.

Maize Export Permits Extended for 180 Days in Argentina (Mar 9)

The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of Argentina has granted an exceptional extension for 180 days for shipments of grain corn due to the drought, excluding the possibility of an extraordinary extension of 30 days.

Ukraine

Finding Buyers for Ukrainian Corn Is Becoming Increasingly Difficult (Mar 6)

Corn prices rose due to Argentina's crop deterioration, while activity on the Ukrainian market decreased due to difficulty finding buyers.

In Poltava Oblast, 20K HA of Corn Remain in the Fields (Mar 7)

The power outage in the Poltava region has caused 20kha of corn to remain in the fields, increasing the amount of tillage in the region. 1.4Mha of land are planned to be sown in the spring.

Over the Past Week, Another 100KT of Corn Were Harvested in Ukraine (Mar 10)

The power outage in the Poltava region has caused 20kha of corn to remain in the fields, increasing the amount of tillage in the region. 1In the spring, seeds will be sowed on 1.4Mha of land.

Kenya

Kenyan Farmers to Wait Longer as Cabinet Fails to Discuss Yellow Maize Imports (Mar 6)

The Cabinet failed to discuss the importation of yellow maize for animal feeds, delaying further relief for farmers struggling with the high cost of meals. The Association of Kenya Animal Feed Manufacturers held a meeting with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who assured them the government would address the issue.

First Duty-Free Maize Imports to Dock at the Port on Sunday in Kenya (Mar 9)

The first consignment of cheap maize from Ukraine will arrive in Kenya on March 12, 2023, providing relief to consumers struggling with the high cost of maize.

Morocco

Morocco’s Corn Imports Drop as Drought Grips Argentina (Mar 12)

Morocco's annual corn imports from Argentina will drop due to a three-year low yield and the worst drought in over 60 years. Argentina is the world's top exporter of processed soy and ranked third for corn, and farmers are facing a cumulative loss of USD 14B and reduced production of soy, corn, and wheat. The drought comes with economic turmoil, with inflation reaching 99%, and the country's external debt mounting.

Peru

Peru Will Increase Hard Yellow Corn Sowings Due to Better International Prices (Mar 6)

Midagri has projected that the 2022/2023 agricultural campaign of hard yellow corn will reach 296.2K ha planted, an increase of 35,488ha compared to the average of the last five campaigns due to the best prices in the international market, availability of labor, and favorable hydroclimatic conditions.

Peru Exported 21.5T of Purple Corn Extract in 2022 (Mar 10)

The purple corn extract, which gives a distinctive flavor to soft drinks and other preparations, was exported in 21.5T in 2022, an increase of 29.1% compared to 2021. The main markets were the US and Chile, with other countries accounting for 30.6%.

Tanzania

Wholesale Price of Tanzanian Maize in March Increased by 100% Yoy Due to Poor Harvest (Mar 8)

Maize wholesale prices in Tanzania in March 2023 have increased by 100% YoY to USD 51.2/100kg. The main reason for the high price is the poor harvest which resulted in low volumes. The second reason is a 40% YoY increase in fuel prices which resulted in a high cost of inland logistics for moving agricultural products.

Zambia

Zambia Offers Kenyan Farmers Land to Grow Maize in Zambia (Mar 7)

Mithika Linturi, Kenya's Agriculture Cabinet Secretary, has revealed a deal between Kenya and Zambia that could see the cost of maize floor drop, allowing Kenyan farmers to grow maize in Zambia and export it back to Kenya. Zambian farmers will also benefit from the deal.

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