W10: Weekly Poultry & Egg Update

Published Mar 14, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W10 in the global poultry and egg landscape. In summary, the PAHO issued an alert on outbreaks of avian flu on almost every continent in January, which the WHO described as a worrying situation. Brazilian chicken meat exports in the first two months of 2023 reached 800.1K MT, up 10.6% while the revenue totaled USD 1.593B compared to the same period last year. Tridge’s analysis indicates that the suspension of Argentine’s poultry products will lead to an increase in domestic supply, having a bullish effect on prices. US turkey meat production is projected at 2.53M MT, an increase of 11.34K MT in March. Lastly, the outbreak of avian flu in Ecuador led to an 8% reduction in laying birds, resulting in a 20% decrease in egg supply and a subsequent 15-20% price increase.


Global: World Health Organization Warns of H5N1 Outbreak in Several Countries (Mar 6)

H5N1, better known as avian flu, is part of the influenza A class. The strains of this virus mainly attack birds, both wild and farmed, but can also infect mammals such as weasels, foxes, and sea lions, among others. In January, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an alert on outbreaks of avian flu in birds in countries on almost every continent; the World Health Organization says the situation is worrying. The news of several outbreaks of this virus spreading in several countries may characterize one of the worst outbreaks of avian flu ever seen in animals. But, before understanding whether another pandemic could be close at hand, what is the H5N1 virus and what is its mode of transmission? The name avian flu is a popular name. But for the H5N1 virus, the correct name is influenza A virus. It is called by that name because it has two proteins in its composition: one called hemagglutinin and the other called neuraminidase.

EU: EFSA Makes Recommendations to Improve Broiler and Hen Welfare (Mar 9)

To improve the welfare of farmed broiler chickens and laying hens, scientists from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) have made various recommendations and published 2 scientific opinions. The scientific opinion on improving the welfare of laying hens and the other on improving the welfare of farmed broilers have been published and include advice on space, the density of animals, lighting, dust, noise, litter, and structures such as elevated platforms. Based on animal responses, they described ways to assess the birds’ welfare and, in addition, proposed ways to prevent or mitigate the negative welfare consequences that they identified.

US: Broiler Meat Production Estimates Went Up in March (Mar 8)

Broiler production is expected to be 46.75B pounds, 50M higher due to hatchery and slaughter data, with an average price of USD 1.27 per pound, up USD 50, and steady imports, exports, and consumption.

Hungary: Hungarian Prices Not Only Reached but Also Exceeded the EU Prices (Mar 10)

The live-weight producer price of slaughtered chicken was the highest in Hungary in February compared to some European Union member states. The producers in France, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, Poland, and Italy also sold their chicken cheaper. The selling price of L-shaped eggs at the packing point was also the highest in the first weeks of the year compared to Slovakia, Poland, and Italy. The selling price of 100kg of table eggs (M+L) at the packing point was USD 302.87 (282.37 euros) in W8 of this year, while the EU average was only USD 273.93 (255.39 euros). Between 2022 and 2023, the product became more expensive in Hungary by 100%, while the EU27 average was only 68.6% more expensive. Its rise in prices exceeded the EU average at the beginning of the year as well, which was 1.4% from W7 to W8, while at home it increased by 2.4% during the same period.

Brazil: Mixed Prices in Chicken, but Very Timid Changes (Mar 6)

Mar 6 marks the beginning of another week of commercialization in the chicken market with mixed prices, but specific changes only for the prices of frozen or chilled poultry in São Paulo. Chicken meat prices reacted in February in most of the regions monitored by Cepea, thus interrupting the downward movement that had been registered since October 2022. According to Cepea, this reaction was mainly linked to the increased demand for poultry products, registered from the first half of February. In addition, the good pace of exports reduced the availability of meat in the domestic market, reinforcing the price recovery movement. In São Paulo, according to Scot Consultoria, poultry on the farm remained stable at USD 0.93/kg (R$4.90), as well as chicken wholesale, costing USD 1.26/kg (R$6.60). In the case of live animals, São Paulo had no price reference.

Brazil: Evolution and Price Relationship Between Brazil and the US in the Export of Chicken Meat (Mar 7)

FAO data indicate that, in the 23 years and two months between January 2000 and February 2023, fresh chicken meat exported by Brazil reached, on average, a value 55% higher than that obtained by North American exporters. The Brazilian supply is more diversified than that of the US until recently concentrated on the export of chicken drumsticks. In this almost quarter of a century, on only two occasions have Brazilian prices remained below the average for a longer period of time: in the early 2000s and, more recently, during the pandemic. In neither case was there a price reduction; only retreated marginally. The fall at the beginning of this century corresponded to the moment when Brazil was moving towards world leadership in the sector, which occurred in 2004 and since then has not been abandoned. The most recent reduction shows the effects that COVID-19 had on Brazilian exports. Thus, after a five-year period (2015/2019) of ups and downs, but of relative stability, with the pandemic (2020) the average price of the Brazilian product fell to the lowest level in 13 years, marginally surpassing what had been registered in 2007 ( around USD 1.4K/MT). However, as it turned out, the reaction to this process was a later shortage of the product (but not just chicken meat). 

Brazil: Chicken Meat Exports Increased by 10.6% In the First Two Months (Mar 8)

The Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) announced that exports of Brazilian chicken meat, including all in natura and processed products, reached 379.2K MT in February, an increase of 1.3% in relation to the same period of the previous year when 374.5K MT were exported. In terms of revenue, there was an increase of 11.1% in February 2023, totaling USD 736.3M, compared to USD 663M in February 2022. In the year, chicken meat exports totaled 800.1K MT, an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, when 723.7K MT were exported. Revenue also saw a significant 24.5% increase, reaching USD 1.593B in the first two months of 2023, compared to USD 1.280B in the same period of the previous year. China remains the main destination for Brazilian exports, having imported 111.7K MT in the first two months of 2023, an increase of 23.2% compared to the same period of 2022 when it imported 90.6K MT. In the second place, Saudi Arabia imported 62.4K MT (+71.9%), followed by South Africa, with 61.7K MT (+9.6%), United Arab Emirates, with 61.2K MT (-28.5%), Japan, with 60.7K MT (+10%) and the European Union, with 40.1K MT (+15.8%).

Brazil: In São Paulo, the Live Chicken Market Shows Signs of Revitalization (Mar 10)

Market information shows that Mar 9, after remaining more than 8 weeks with the price unchanged at USD 0.93/kg (R$4.90), live chicken traded in the interior of São Paulo obtained a readjustment of 10 cents, returning to operate with the same quotation effective between the end of 2022 and the first days of 2023. But the signs of revitalization are still tenuous, as part of the business, especially unscheduled offers continues to be subject to discounts even on the previous price. Considering the new quotation, the price of live chicken in São Paulo is once again equal to that of Minas Gerais where, according to AVIMIG, the 0.95/kg (R$5.00) price has been in force since December 30, 2022, therefore, for exactly 10 weeks. In that time, slaughtered chicken underwent four price adjustments, two with a reduction and one with a resumption. But it has not yet recovered the quotation registered at the end of 2022.

Turkey: China, the Philippines, and Iraq Banned the Import of Poultry Meat and Products From Turkey (Mar 7)

China, the Philippines, and Iraq banned the import of poultry meat and other poultry products from Turkey to prevent the spread of bird flu cases. Bird flu, which has appeared in several countries and caused many poultry to perish, also appeared in the Turkish cities of Denizli and Afyonkarahisar. Quarantine processes have begun, while 6.5M egg-laying chickens have died.

China: Two Newly Discovered Poultry Genetic Resources in Yunnan Province Passed the National On-Site Verification (Mar 7)

In order to thoroughly implement General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instruction spirit of being "determined to develop the national seed industry" and the country's strategic deployment of "fighting the seed industry to turn around", the Provincial Animal Husbandry Station earnestly implements the provincial party committee, the provincial government and the party group of the department. The "seed end" is to accelerate the high-quality development of Yunnan's modern seed industry, fully understand the complex geographical features and climate types of Yunnan, and its rich biodiversity, which is known as the "Kingdom of Animals" and "Kingdom of Plants". Soberly see that livestock and poultry genetic resources are an important part of biodiversity and the basis for realizing the high-quality development of animal husbandry in Yunnan. Combined with the work arrangement of the third national livestock and poultry genetic resources census, they must pay close attention to the new livestock and poultry genetic resources in their province. In June 2021, the province submitted the identification and application materials of the two resources of Yulong Snow Mountain black-bone chicken and Weixi Lijia black-bone chicken to the National Animal and Poultry Genetic Resources Committee, which passed the national expert letter review in the early stage.

Peru: Chicken Prices Tend to Normalize (Mar 6)

The increase in the value of poultry meat was due to the lack of soybean meal that enters Peru from Bolivia, according to Midagri. The Minister of Agrarian Development and Irrigation, Nelly Paredes del Castillo, assured that the price of chicken to the public has been maintained in the last 11 days and that this trend is a clear indicator that its price tends to normalize, and ratified that Senasa will authorize private companies to acquire fertile eggs to keep the local market supplied. Regarding the increase in the value of poultry meat, the minister pointed out that it was due to the lack of soybean meal that enters Peru from Bolivia, and as is known, some access roads have been interrupted due to social conflicts, especially in Puno.

Iran: The Last Price of Chicken in Iranian Market (Mar 9)

According to Isna, based on field observations from shops in Tehran, the price of a kilo of a warm whole chicken is USD 1.56 to USD 1.66 (66K to 70K tomans), although in some areas it is sold at a price of USD 1.70/kg (72K tomans) and in other areas it is sold at less than USD 1.56/kg (66K tomans). Observations indicate that the price of chicken has increased compared to the beginning of March. This increase in price is when the head of the Poultry and Fish Sellers Union told ISNA that chicken should be sold at the approved price of USD 1.49/kg (63K tomans) and selling more than the approved price is expensive.

Egypt: Chicks Prices (Feb 12)

On Mar 12, chick prices witnessed stability for the third day in a row, and major poultry companies operating in the poultry wealth sector, during the day’s dealings in the local market. The stability of the rest of the companies came with the calming of the demand for buying chicks after the increases that occurred in the past few days. The lowest price of the chick, in companies, was USD 0.65 (20 pounds), while the highest price was USD 0.91 (28 pounds), with the possibility of moving prices up or down during the day’s dealings in the local market. Chicks prices in Egypt on Mar 12 were as follows:

  • Cairo Poultry Company- USD 0.79 (24.5 pounds)

  • Nile Pioneers Company- USD 0.74 (23 pounds)

  • Newgen company- USD 0.89 (27.5 pounds)

  • Maintenance Egypt Company- USD 0.78 (24.25 pounds)

  • Egyptian Dutch Company- USD 0.68 (21 pounds)

  • Makkah Al-Mukarramah Company- USD 0.65 (20 pounds)

  • Anani Company- USD 0.86 (26.5 pounds)

  • Wataniya Company- USD 0.91 (28 pounds)

  • Valley Company- USD 0.86 (26.5 pounds)

  • Turquoise Company- USD 0.78 (24 pounds)

Japan: Slaughtering 680K More Chickens Due to Bird Flu Outbreak (Mar 6)

Authorities in Niigata prefecture in central Japan will slaughter about 680K chickens at a local chicken farm in connection with an outbreak of bird flu. On March 2, the Japanese government released statistics showing that for the first time during the bird flu season (covering the period from autumn to spring), more than 15M chickens were destroyed in the country as part of measures to prevent the spread of infection. The previous anti-record was recorded in the season from November 2020 to March 2021, when 9.9M chickens were destroyed due to 52 outbreaks of infection in Japan.

Tridge Analysis: Implications of the Suspension of Argentina’s Poultry Products Exports (Mar 7)

On February 28th, Argentina suspended its avian product exports due to avian flu. Cases have been growing since then up to date. Exports of those products surpass USD 400M annually. Producers will turn to the domestic market for now, increasing domestic supply and pressuring prices down, but the potential supply disruptions are having a bullish effect on prices. (Continue Reading)

Argentina: There Must Be No Cases of Avian Flu for Six Months to Reopen Exports (Mar 9)

The introduction of bird flu in poultry production farms caused the closure of poultry meat exports. The waiting times for the World Organization for Animal Health (WHO) to determine the possibility of reopening exports are between three and six months without new cases of avian influenza being detected in productive farms. This was explained to Salta/12 by Raúl Díaz Pardo, thematic coordinator of Animal Health of the Noa Norte Regional Center of SENASA when asked about the current epidemiological situation that already affects 10 provinces (Córdoba, Buenos Aires, Neuquén, Santa Fe, Río Negro, Jujuy, Santiago del Estero, San Luis, and Chaco, as well as Salta). Despite the fact that the alert was issued in the northern border area, the most affected areas, for now, are the center and south of the country. 

Argentina: Chicken Can Be Much More Expensive or Much Cheaper, Depending on Where You Live (Mar 12)

Argentina has now been removed from international poultry markets after highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was detected in commercial poultry flocks. The country exports 185K MT of poultry meat annually, worth about USD 350M, and while this may seem small compared to neighboring Brazil's exports (4.85M MT), Argentina is ranked as the eighth largest poultry exporter in the world. Stopped exports therefore not only have local effects. The appearance of the virus was first reported in mid-February in the South American country, and since then 25 cases have been reported. At that time, as in neighboring countries, highly pathogenic avian influenza infection was detected only in wild birds, but now the virus has also appeared on commercial chicken farms. The first case was in the Rio Negro province of northern Patagonia, an area without significant poultry production. Since then, however, the virus has spread north, appearing in a commercial farm and a backyard herd in Buenos Aires, and in two backyard herds in Cordoba province. Argentinian production primarily meets the needs of the domestic market, despite this, the industry is constantly taking advantage of new opportunities in the world. Its two main export destinations were China and Chile, however, due to the war in Ukraine, there were supply shortages on the global market, and Argentina recently started shipping to Saudi Arabia as well. Higher prices have also made exports more attractive, with overseas sales forecast to grow 4% this year.

Mexico: Doors Open to Regionalize the Poultry Market (Mar 10)

Due to the strong impact on the agri-food chain to supply the consumption of poultry meat and eggs and due to the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), international markets have expressed interest in establishing regionalization mechanisms for trade with Mexico. Rivera Espinoza, who coordinates the opening of new export markets and the establishment of import requirements for livestock merchandise in Mexico, explained that Cuba, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Japan are the countries that have expressed such interest in recognizing HPAI-free zones in Mexico, for the export of goods of avian origin. He analyzed the impact of the slaughter of more than 58M birds that have occurred, in its highest proportion in the United States.

Argentina: Eliminate 11K Laying Hens in Neuquén Due to Bird Flu (Mar 8)

After the National Agri-Food Health and Quality Service (Senasa) confirmed a positive case of avian influenza (AI) H5 in birds from a commercial farm in Senillosa, in the province of Neuquén, some 11K laying hens will be slaughtered, according to Marcos Lauge, director of Livestock and Animal Health of that province. This is the second case of birds from the commercial sector in Patagonia after the detection in W9 in Mainqué, Río Negro, where more than 180K broiler chickens were slaughtered. Although the official figure has not yet been reported by Senasa, the Neuquén Ministry of Production and Industry indicated that some 11K birds will be stamped out. It is the fourth case detected in Neuquén: the first three occurred in Zapala, Las Lajas, and San Patricio del Chañar, although in wild and backyard birds.

Taiwan: Eggs and White Meat Chicken Shortage Due to Global Avian Outbreak (Mar 10)

The Premier of Taiwan announced that there would not be enough eggs or chicken meat available in Taiwan due to the global outbreak of avian influenza and weather-related concerns. The Chairperson of the Council of Agriculture also acknowledged that there is a shortage of almost 500K white meat chickens, with only 4.6M supply available per week. The inventory of chicken meat in March 2023 is tight, and specific parts like large chicken leg meat chunks will be relatively scarce. Imported goods will be used right away to supplement them.


US: Turkey Meat Production Estimates Went Up in March (Mar 8)

Turkey is projected at 2.53M MT (5.585B pounds), a gain of 11.34K MT (25M pounds) on the month because of hatchery and slaughter numbers, with an average price of USD 1.62 per pound, unchanged, and lower exports against steady imports and consumption.

UK: Turkey Sector Faces Uncertain Future After Mixed Christmas (Mar 7)

UK turkey producers face a questionable year ahead due to bird flu, labor availability, and rising costs following a mixed Christmas. Seasonal producers are uncertain as to whether to reduce production or even stay in business. Some have been affected by avian influenza, and the required secondary cleansing and disinfection measures mean they will not be able to open their sheds to produce turkeys this year. Others are battling the rising energy costs that are making it incredibly hard to predict the costs of production and, on top of that, labor shortages are making it an extremely challenging time for the sector. This follows a mixed Christmas, which saw reasonable returns for most producers, but some found sales were slow and were left with a surplus of birds at the end of the year. There is a feeling in the sector that after a very good Christmas in 2021 due to the COVID-19 lockdown and families having a more traditional Christmas, the most recent festive period had been less heartening. 

Ukraine: Birds With Respiratory Mycoplasmosis of Turkeys Are Eliminated (Mar 8)

Prevention of respiratory mycoplasmosis in turkeys consists in preventing the introduction of the pathogen with breeding products, careful antigenic control of the herd regarding mycoplasma carriers, as well as culling all birds that react positively or questionably. In the event of respiratory mycoplasmosis, all clinically sick and suspicious emaciated birds are eliminated, and premises and equipment are disinfected with hot solutions of caustic soda or chlorinated lime in the absence of birds or with iodine preparations in their presence. Conditionally healthy birds are treated depending on the indicators with biomycin, streptomycin, teramycin, tilan or tilasin through drinking with water, adding the drug to compound feed, or intramuscular injections. In some cases, a single injection of oxytetracycline into the sinus is recommended.


Japan: Massive Slaughter of Chickens Led to a 76% Increase in Wholesale Prices for Eggs (Mar 7)

An unprecedented chicken slaughter in Japan due to an outbreak of bird flu led to the biggest increase in the price of chicken eggs since 1991, which the country's leading economic newspaper Nikkei called a shock to the consumer market. The publication's experts found that the average wholesale price of eggs in March jumped to USD 2.5/kg (335 yen). This is 76% higher than it was a year ago. The average retail price for a dozen rose to USD 1.6 (212 yen). This is 20% higher than last year. At the same time, in many stores in Tokyo, chicken eggs are quickly sold out and sometimes disappear from the shelves. Some supermarkets ask you to take no more than one pack per customer. Almost 1.6M chickens were slaughtered in mainland Japan from autumn to March 6 due to an outbreak of bird flu. This is the maximum figure for the entire period of existence of industrial poultry farming in the country.

Ecuador: The Bucket of Eggs in Ecuador Rises by USD 0.40 Due to Bird Flu (Mar 8)

The ravages of avian flu in Ecuador are already affecting the costs of the products supplied by the poultry sector on a national scale. Eggs have risen in price between 15 and 20%, assured Marisol Molina, Executive Director of the Union of Egg Producers (Uniproh). The supply of the product has been reduced by about 20%. The slaughter of 1.2M birds to prevent the spread of the disease complicated egg producers. With this, the population of laying birds (which produce eggs) was reduced by 8% and now the sector must face a demand with a lower supply of the product, which makes costs more expensive, explained Diana Espín, Executive Director of the National Corporation of Poultry farmers of Ecuador (Conave). A bucket of eggs (30 units), which cost USD 3.30 a few weeks ago, has risen to USD 3.70 these days, Molina said. The cost may increase even more for Easter, said the union representative.

Taiwan: Increasing Duck Egg Prices in W10 Due to a Chicken Egg Shortage (Mar 10)

The shortage of chicken eggs in Taiwan has continued in W10. Sales have dramatically increased due to the demand from Taiwanese consumers, including duck eggs and quail eggs. Among them, duck eggs are the most popular, and the Taiwanese Council of Agriculture has confirmed that in addition to chicken eggs, there is also a shortage of duck eggs, which are essential for making rice dumplings during the Dragon Boat Festival. The local price of duck eggs was USD 1.47/0.6kg (NTD 45/0.6kg), the wholesale price stood at USD 1.80-1.96/0.6kg (NTD 55-60/0.6kg), both prices have increased by USD 0.098/0.6kg (NTD 3/0.6kg) as of March 10, 2023.

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